The excitement is building for the 151st Kentucky Derby, set to take place this Saturday, May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. With a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET, this year’s race promises to be another thrilling chapter in the storied history of the Run for the Roses. The race features a competitive field of 20 horses, all vying for a share of the $5 million purse, with $3.1 million awarded to the winner.
At the forefront of the pack is Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, who has opened as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Despite his strong pedigree and recent performances, Journalism faces a daunting challenge; the last six post-time favorites have failed to secure victory in the Derby. Recent years have seen longshots defy the odds, with winners like Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022) and Mage (15-1 in 2023) capturing the hearts of fans and bettors alike.
As the anticipation builds, the stakes are high. The last favorite to win the Derby was Justify in 2018, and many are eager to see if Journalism can break the recent trend of longshot victories. With a strong track record, including decisive wins in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, Journalism has earned his spot as the leading contender.
However, as trainer Whit Beckman of Flying Mohawk points out, “There’s a thousand and one things that can go wrong once the gates open.” This sentiment resonates with many in the racing community, as the unpredictability of the Derby is part of its allure.
Among the contenders challenging Journalism is Sovereignty, the second choice at 5-1, who has shown impressive form leading up to the race. Trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes last October and is coming off a strong second-place finish in the Florida Derby. Mott believes in his horse's chances, stating, “I think we have as good of a chance this year as we’ve probably ever had.”
Another horse to watch is Burnham Square, who demonstrated remarkable resilience by rallying from last place to win the Blue Grass Stakes. His trainer, Ian Wilkes, expressed confidence in his horse’s ability to handle the Derby distance, saying, “I think a mile and a quarter is right in my wheelhouse.” Burnham Square is currently listed at 12-1 odds.
After the recent scratching of Rodriguez, the only also-eligible horse, Baeza, has moved into the field. Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs and ridden by Flavien Prat, will start from post position No. 20. This horse has accumulated 37.5 qualifying points, finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby, and now enters the race with 12-1 morning line odds.
The full lineup for the 151st Kentucky Derby includes:
- Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 17-1
- Neoequos, Saffie Joseph Jr., Luis Saez, 55-1
- Final Gambit, Brad Cox, Luan Machado, 18-1
- American Promise, D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez, 13-1
- Admire Daytona, Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire, 39-1
- Luxor Cafe, Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira, 14-1
- Journalism, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 4-1
- Burnham Square, Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1
- Grande, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 18-1
- Flying Mohawk, Whit Beckman, Joe Ramos, 35-1
- East Avenue, Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco, 34-1
- Publisher, Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz Jr., 30-1
- Tiztastic, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 19-1
- Render Judgment, Kenny McPeek, Julien Leparoux, 12-1
- Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, 29-1
- Sandman, Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 5-1
- Sovereignty, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 11-1
- Chunk of Gold, Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry, 34-1
- Owen Almighty, Brian Lynch, Javier Castellano, 43-1
- Baeza, John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, 51-1
As the race day approaches, experts and fans alike are contemplating their bets, with many leaning towards Journalism, but aware of the unpredictability that the Derby brings. Sean Nolan, a top finisher at the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship, notes that “sometimes there is value in betting the favorite.” He emphasizes the importance of strategy in the Derby, where many bettors are swayed by names and numbers.
With the excitement palpable and the horses preparing for their moment in the spotlight, fans are reminded that the Derby is not just a race; it’s a celebration of tradition, competition, and the enduring spirit of horse racing. Coverage of the event will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with streaming available on Peacock. As the horses enter the gate, all eyes will be on Journalism to see if he can defy the odds and secure victory in the 151st Kentucky Derby.
