The 157th Belmont Stakes, scheduled for June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course, is shaping up to be an electrifying event despite the absence of a Triple Crown contender. With Belmont Park undergoing renovations, this year’s race has been shortened to 1 1/4 miles, a change that is already stirring strategic adjustments among trainers and jockeys. The $2 million purse is on the line, and eight horses will compete for the prestigious title in what promises to be a thrilling Test of the Champion.
At the forefront of the field is Journalism, the Preakness Stakes winner, who enters as the favorite with 8-5 odds. Close behind is Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby champion, holding 2-1 odds. These two titans are set for a head-to-head clash that has fans buzzing, even though the dream of a Triple Crown winner has faded with Sovereignty’s absence from the Preakness. Saratoga’s historic racing venue adds a rich backdrop to this showdown, maintaining the race’s allure despite the venue change.
The shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles favors speed horses such as Crudo, the Sir Barton Stakes winner, over stamina-driven closers like Sovereignty. This shift in distance aligns more closely with the Kentucky Derby’s length, potentially giving Sovereignty an edge in terms of familiarity, though the Preakness winner Journalism will be looking to prove his mettle on this new track layout. The pace of the race is expected to be critical, with front-runners Crudo and Rodriguez, the Wood Memorial winner trained by Bob Baffert, likely to set a fast tempo that could either break the field open or set the stage for late closers.
The full lineup, as posted on June 3, 2025, by horse racing analyst Mark C. Story on Twitter, includes:
- Journalism (8-5): Preakness winner with an impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure.
- Sovereignty (2-1): Kentucky Derby champion, rested since May.
- Baeza (4-1): Third-place finisher in the Derby, sired by a Belmont winner’s brother.
- Rodriguez (6-1): Wood Memorial winner, trained by Bob Baffert.
- Hill Road (10-1): Peter Pan Stakes victor known for strong closing speed.
- Crudo (15-1): Front-runner and Sir Barton Stakes winner.
- Heart of Honor (30-1): UAE Derby runner-up seeking a rebound.
- Uncaged (30-1): Longshot from Todd Pletcher’s stable with modest recent form.
Experts remain divided on who will emerge victorious. Jody Demling, a respected handicapper, advises bettors to consider underdogs over the favorites due to concerns about Journalism’s potential fatigue and Sovereignty’s rust from a layoff. Gene Menez, who accurately predicted the 2024 Kentucky Derby exacta, favors Sovereignty, citing the shorter distance as better suited to his racing style. Meanwhile, Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation highlights Baeza’s 4-1 odds as a value pick, drawing parallels to Tabasco Cat’s surprise Belmont win in 1994 at similar odds.
Several factors will influence the race outcome, including pace dynamics, post positions, trainer and jockey experience, track conditions, and recent form. Pace setters Crudo and Rodriguez could push a fast early tempo, potentially setting up a thrilling finish for closers like Hill Road or Baeza. Post positions also play a strategic role: Journalism draws post 7, offering room to stalk the leaders; Sovereignty sits in post 2, a spot that allows him to save ground; and Hill Road benefits from the rail draw, ideal for his late-running style.
Trainer and jockey pedigrees add another layer of intrigue. Chad Brown, who trains Hill Road, and Todd Pletcher, responsible for Crudo and Uncaged, boast a combined seven Belmont wins. Jockeys Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Hill Road and John Velazquez riding Crudo are among the sport’s elite, bringing invaluable experience to the race. Saratoga’s dirt track conditions can vary, with a fast track favoring front-runners like Crudo and a tiring surface potentially benefiting closers such as Sovereignty. Bettors should monitor weather reports closely for last-minute updates.
Historical trends offer additional insights. Since 2000, only seven of 25 Belmont favorites have won, though 17 have placed in the top three. Notably, three of the last four winners competed in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness, a pattern that favors horses like Baeza and Sovereignty. Conversely, no Preakness runner has won the Belmont since Justify in 2018, a statistic that casts some doubt on Journalism’s chances despite his favorite status.
For those looking to place bets, a balanced approach is recommended. Win and place bets on Sovereignty offer safety, while backing Hill Road to win could yield value. Exotic bets such as exactas and trifectas involving Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza, Hill Road, and Crudo provide opportunities for bigger payouts. It’s wise to monitor live odds on platforms like TwinSpires or NYRA Bets, adjusting wagers as the market shifts. Hedging bets with small stakes on longshots like Crudo can cover potential upsets without risking too much.
Horse racing betting remains legal in 40 states, surpassing sports betting’s 38-state footprint. However, bettors should be aware that horse race wagering often requires separate apps from traditional sports betting platforms. Popular horse racing apps include FanDuel Racing, AmWager, BetMGM Horse Racing, Bet365, Caesars Racebook, DK Horse, DRF Bets, Hollywood Races, Iron Bets Racing, NYRA Bets, OffTrackBetting, TVG, TwinSpires, WatchandWager, Xpressbet, and 1/ST Bet. Each app’s availability varies by state, so users should verify access based on their location.
Understanding betting types is crucial for maximizing enjoyment and potential returns. Straight bets include Win (pick the winner), Place (finish in top two), and Show (finish in top three), with payouts decreasing as the chance of winning increases. Exotic bets—such as Exacta (top two finishers in exact order), Trifecta (top three), and Superfecta (top four)—offer larger payouts but require greater precision. Box bets remove the exact order requirement, increasing chances but also the stake, while Key bets focus on a chosen winner with flexibility on the other finishers’ order.
Responsible gambling is paramount. Experts recommend setting a budget—$50 is a common suggestion—and sticking to it. Splitting bets among favorites and value picks helps manage risk. Bettors should stay informed about last-minute scratches and track conditions, avoid chasing losses with larger bets, and take breaks if gambling becomes stressful. New users must be at least 21 years old to participate, and those struggling with gambling problems can seek help by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
The 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga promises a captivating contest between the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness champion Journalism, with several other contenders ready to shake up the race. Whether you back the favorites or hunt for value among longshots, the Test of the Champion remains a highlight of the horse racing calendar, blending strategy, speed, and history in a spectacular showdown.
