On August 29, 2025, the political landscape in Iowa was jolted by news that Senator Joni Ernst, a prominent Republican figure and the state’s first female senator, will not seek re-election in 2026. According to CBS News and multiple other outlets, Ernst’s decision, long the subject of speculation, sets the stage for a fiercely contested Senate race in a state that has become a bellwether for national political trends.
Ernst, 55, has served in the U.S. Senate since 2014. Her career has been marked by a blend of military service—she retired as a lieutenant colonel after 23 years in the Iowa Army National Guard—and a reputation for fiscal conservatism. She chairs the Senate’s Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and sits on several others, including Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Agriculture, and Armed Services, as reported by Des Moines Register.
Her 2014 campaign ad, in which she promised to “make ‘em squeal” in Washington by cutting government spending, became an instant classic and established her as a political outsider unafraid of shaking things up. She was also the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa and the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate, a distinction that resonated with voters across the political spectrum (according to UPI and NBC News).
Despite her initial pledge to serve only two terms, Ernst had been moving toward a third run, hiring a campaign manager in June and planning her annual “Roast and Ride” fundraiser for October. Yet, as sources told Axios and Politico, she ultimately decided to step aside, joining Governor Kim Reynolds, who announced her own retirement earlier this year, in reshaping Iowa’s political future.
Ernst’s departure opens the door for a new generation of Republican contenders. Chief among them is Rep. Ashley Hinson, who represents Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. Hinson, a former TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic seat in 2020, is expected to announce her Senate bid by the end of September, according to sources cited by Axios and UPI. Hinson’s fundraising prowess is already evident; she raised $854,000 in the most recent quarter, outpacing Ernst’s $723,000.
Other potential Republican candidates include NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker, who is said to be considering a run, and former state Sen. Jim Carlin, who has already launched a primary challenge. However, Rep. Zach Nunn and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are expected to seek re-election to the House, while Rep. Randy Feenstra is running for governor, according to NBC News.
Democrats, meanwhile, have wasted no time positioning themselves for the open seat. Four candidates—state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris, and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Director Nathan Sage—have declared their intention to seek the Democratic nomination. Each has responded to Ernst’s retirement with a sense of urgency and optimism.
“Whether it’s Joni Ernst or someone else, they’ll have to answer for supporting cutting Iowans’ health care in favor of a tax break for billionaires,” Turek said on social media, as reported by the Des Moines Register. Norris, for her part, declared, “Joni Ernst is seeing the writing on the wall that Iowans are ready for change.” Wahls was even more direct: “Joni Ernst is retiring because she knows our campaign is on track to win.” Sage, echoing the sentiment of a new political era, told supporters, “We just got some great breaking news… Ernst not running makes this seat more attainable for us now.”
Democratic Party leaders are equally bullish. Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, stated, “Joni Ernst is retiring because she knows that Iowans are furious at her and Washington Republicans for threatening our health care and spiking costs for families. No matter which Republican runs for this seat, they can’t hide from the harm the GOP has caused to working families across Iowa.”
National Democrats also see an opening. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer remarked, “Every day, Trump’s devastating agenda and his forcing GOP senators to vote against the interests of their states puts their majority even further into jeopardy,” as quoted by NBC News. The party hopes to capitalize on the rare opportunity to flip an Iowa Senate seat, something they haven’t accomplished since 2008.
But Iowa remains a tough battleground. Ernst won her last race by more than six points, and Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Still, the state has a history of swinging between parties—Barack Obama won Iowa in both 2008 and 2012—so Democrats see a glimmer of hope.
Ernst’s tenure has not been without controversy. Earlier this summer, she drew national attention for remarks made during a May 30 town hall. When a constituent warned that Medicaid cuts could cost lives, Ernst responded, “Well, we all are going to die.” She later issued a sarcastic apology, saying she assumed everyone knew “we are all going to perish from this Earth.” The comment, covered by Axios and UPI, sparked criticism from both sides of the aisle.
She’s also faced backlash from conservatives for her 2022 vote in favor of the Respect for Marriage Act, which ensured federal recognition of same-sex marriages. Several Republican county parties in Iowa voted to censure her over the decision, but Ernst stood firm, stating the law “improved religious liberty protections.” In addition, she faced scrutiny from MAGA-aligned Republicans for her initial hesitation to confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who faced allegations of sexual assault and alcohol misuse—allegations he denied. Ernst, a survivor of domestic abuse and sexual assault herself, ultimately voted to confirm Hegseth.
Despite these controversies, Ernst’s legislative record is substantial. She helped lead negotiations on the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, which became law in 2022. She also contributed to the Laken Riley Act, specifically “Sarah’s Law,” requiring the detention of undocumented immigrants who commit serious crimes, as reported by the Des Moines Register.
Ernst’s decision to retire marks the end of a significant chapter in Iowa politics. With both her and Governor Reynolds stepping down, the state is poised for a dramatic political realignment. The coming months will see a flurry of announcements, debates, and campaign events as both parties vie for control of a seat that could tip the balance of power in the Senate.
Whatever happens next, Iowa voters are certain to play a pivotal role in shaping the nation’s political future—just as they have so many times before.
