John Deere, the iconic green-and-yellow agricultural equipment manufacturer, is facing a season of uncertainty as global economic forces buffet the farming industry. On August 22, 2025, the company reported a significant year-over-year drop in net income and sales for its fiscal third quarter, a result that underscored the mounting challenges confronting both the company and the wider agricultural sector. But even as John Deere announced hundreds of layoffs and braced for a costly tariff burden, company leaders and analysts alike pointed to glimmers of hope on the horizon—particularly in overseas markets and through a massive new commitment to U.S. manufacturing.
The numbers tell a sobering story. As of late August, Deere had announced layoffs affecting more than 200 employees across three key Midwestern facilities: 115 workers at its East Moline, Illinois plant were set to be terminated later in the month, with an additional 52 in Moline, Illinois and 71 in Waterloo, Iowa to follow in September. These cuts, which add to thousands of layoffs over the past year, are a direct response to declining orders and a broader downturn in the agricultural economy.
“As stated on our most recent earnings call, the struggling ag economy continues to impact orders for John Deere equipment,” the company told CNBC in a statement. “This is a challenging time for many farmers, growers and producers, and directly impacts our business in the near term.”
Farmers across the U.S. are grappling with a perfect storm of lower crop prices—especially for staples like corn and grain—rising operational costs, labor shortages, and the unpredictable effects of climate change. The result? Many have cut back on big purchases, including new tractors and combines, directly impacting manufacturers like Deere. According to CNBC, these pressures have prompted farmers to “pare back their spending,” leaving Deere’s core customer base more cautious than ever.
Yet the company’s woes are not solely the result of agricultural cycles or weather patterns. Tariffs, imposed during President Donald Trump’s administration and expanded in recent years, have taken a heavy toll. Deere estimates that tariffs have cost it $300 million so far in 2025, with a projected full-year impact of nearly $600 million. Cory Reed, president of John Deere’s Worldwide Agriculture and Turf Division, explained during the company’s third-quarter earnings call, “If you have customers that are concerned about what their end markets are going to look like in a tariff environment, they’re waiting to see the outcomes of what these trade deals look like.”
These tariffs, ranging from 10% to over 100% on goods from dozens of countries, have hit not only Deere but also other major manufacturers. Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge, recently laid off hundreds of workers in Indiana and announced further cuts across North America. Mack Trucks is planning to eliminate up to 450 jobs in Pennsylvania and Maryland, while Nintendo delayed a major product launch in response to tariff-driven market uncertainty. According to a CNBC survey, 37% of CEOs expect to cut jobs this year, with 82% anticipating higher inflation as companies pass tariff costs on to consumers through price increases of 5% to 20%.
The impact on Rust Belt communities—once promised revitalization through trade protections—has been particularly acute. Despite pledges that tariffs would boost domestic production, federal data shows the manufacturing sector lost 14,000 net jobs in May and June 2025 alone. During Trump’s first term, economists estimated his tariffs cost approximately 245,000 American jobs. The layoffs at Deere’s Illinois and Iowa plants are just the latest blow to communities that have long counted on manufacturing for economic stability.
Still, John Deere is not standing still. In June, the company announced a bold plan to invest $20 billion into U.S. manufacturing over the next decade, a move CEO John May said “underscores our dedication to innovation and growth while staying cost-competitive in a global market.” The company was quick to dispel rumors that it might shutter U.S. plants due to falling demand, instead framing its investment as a “bold move” to strengthen its American footprint. This announcement follows a wave of similar commitments from manufacturers seeking to demonstrate their “Made in the USA” credentials, particularly as political scrutiny over offshore production intensifies. Before the 2024 election, Trump had threatened Deere with 200% tariffs if it moved production to Mexico.
Despite the current headwinds, Deere’s leadership and many Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The company employs more than 70,000 people globally and is betting that increased demand in Europe and South America will help offset North American softness. “We think there’s positive tail winds from both what we see in the trade deals, and we think there are positive tail winds from what we see in tax policy,” Reed said during the earnings call. Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen told CNBC she remains bullish on Deere, expecting “increased confidence into 2026,” while Truist analyst Jamie Cook, even after lowering her target, said she believes “this year marks a bottoming for the company’s earnings per share.”
Indeed, Deere’s stock has climbed nearly 30% over the past year, a testament to investor faith in the company’s long-term prospects. D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky told CNBC, “The way I’d say it is 2025 could be the worst, the lowest number of tractor sales in the history of modern agriculture,” but he sees the potential for a rebound as “imminent.” Morgan Stanley analysts echoed this sentiment, writing that while demand may be decreasing, Deere remains “an attractive opportunity longer term.”
Part of that optimism stems from Deere’s disciplined approach to cost-cutting and production. Analyst Angel Castillo noted that, “with its latest cost-cutting measures, Deere is saving itself by not overproducing or creating a supply chain issue.” He added, “The reality today is that we’re still in an uncertain environment, and I think they’re managing in a disciplined, rational way to try to make sure not to create a worse environment.”
Looking ahead, the company’s future may hinge on its ability to navigate these cyclical downturns and capitalize on emerging trends like precision agriculture—a field where technology promises to boost yields and efficiency for farmers worldwide. If demand in Europe and South America continues to grow, as Deere executives hope, it could provide a much-needed lifeline as North America recovers.
For now, John Deere stands at a crossroads, balancing the pain of layoffs and tariff costs against a massive new investment in American manufacturing and the promise of global growth. The next few years will test its adaptability and resilience, but if history is any guide, the company—and the communities that depend on it—are not out of the running yet.
