Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is poised to assume the role of Prime Minister shortly, which has already triggered reactions from various international stakeholders, particularly China and Taiwan. His election victory on September 27, 2024, reflects not just internal political dynamics but also the complex web of Japan's foreign relations, especially with its neighbors.
China's Foreign Ministry was quick to respond, calling for maintaining "a healthy and stable" relationship with Japan. Spokesman Lin Jian expressed hopes for Japan to adopt "an objective and right perception of China," urging Tokyo to actively pursue diplomatic strategies to promote mutual benefits and steady growth between the two nations. This call for stability is tinged with caution as military tensions have been rising between the two countries. Recently, China has ramped up military activities near Japan, conducting large-scale exercises and sending its aircraft carrier through contested maritime areas.
According to the Taipei Times, Ishiba's leadership is expected to yield complex ramifications for Japan-Taiwan ties as well. Taiwanese academics speculate Ishiba is likely to pursue stable relations with China, balancing this with the economic cooperation he intends to continue with Taiwan. Li Shih-hui, chairman of the Taiwan Japan Academy, emphasized Ishiba's utmost priority will be improving Japan's economy, particularly after the declining support for the LDP observed during former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's tenure.
The LDP’s sizeable majority means Ishiba is heralded as the next prime minister after the parliamentary session commences on October 1. This presents Japan with an opportunity for economic recalibration, especially against the backdrop of U.S.-China tensions. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections will be pivotal, shaping the dynamics of Japan’s policies moving forward.
On the other hand, Ishiba’s military and defense policy inclinations raise eyebrows. He has been known to advocate for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to adopt more assertive military postures, including the controversial proposal of creating "an Asian NATO." Kyoko Hatakeyama, a professor at the University of Niigata Prefecture, cautioned against such ambitions, stating Beijing is wary of Ishiba's hardline stance on defense. With historical memories of military aggression between the two nations still coloring their relationship, this proposal reverberates with significant apprehension among Chinese officials.
Academics like Chen Wen-jia from the Institute for Policy Research feel Ishiba's assertive stance around Japan’s self-defense mechanisms and security alliances could complicate Japan's dialogue with China. Nevertheless, they note the importance of the Taiwan issue, which Ishiba’s administration will likely prioritize as part of strengthening US-Japan ties. A careful approach to Taiwan could bode well for its security concerns without aggravation of tensions with Beijing.
Beijing’s remarks on the outcome of the LDP election exhibit its intent to manage tensions presently brewing due to territorial disputes, particularly over the East China Sea and issues related to Taiwan. The calls from Chinese officials underline their desire for cooperative engagement, even as they express reservations about potential shifts emanated from Ishiba’s leadership.
Despite these tensions, there are indications from both sides aiming at neutrality and conflict de-escalation. Actions such as China’s recent decision to gradually resume imports of Japanese seafood indicate underlying interests to stabilize the bilateral relationship, even amid political rivalries.
While Ishiba’s election provides opportunities for Japan to reposition itself politically and economically on the global stage, the path forward requires delicate navigation through existing military, diplomatic, and economic landscapes marked by historical grievances and current territorial contentions.
With Japan's foreign policy facing scrutiny and uncertainty, Ishiba's upcoming policies will likely maintain continuity with Kishida’s administration, especially concerning Taiwan. Observers note he may seek to recalibrate Japan’s engagement with China without undermining the Tokyo-Taipei relationship, making it imperative to strike the right balance moving forward.
Overall, Shigeru Ishiba’s presidency is likely to be pivotal as it can reshape Japan’s diplomatic efforts, particularly with two key players like China and Taiwan. The international community will watch closely as Japan navigates this new chapter under Ishiba.
