Japan is facing a demographic crisis as the number of children in the country has reached an all-time low for the 44th consecutive year. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the number of children aged 14 years or younger has fallen to 13.66 million as of May 1, 2025, a decrease of 350,000 from the previous year. This decline means that children now account for only 11.1 percent of Japan's total population of 123.4 million, marking the lowest ratio since comparable data began in 1950.
The United Nations reports that Japan has the second-lowest proportion of children in a population of over 40 million, trailing only South Korea, which has a child population percentage of 10.6. This alarming trend is indicative of a broader issue: Japan's birth rate continues to plummet while the aging population grows. Experts warn that the implications of this demographic shift are profound, affecting the workforce, economy, welfare systems, and the overall social structure of the nation.
In 2024, Japan recorded 1.62 million births, significantly overshadowed by the 1.62 million deaths, highlighting a concerning trend where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. The fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has stagnated at around 1.3, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. Comparatively, the global fertility rate is approximately 2.3 as of 2023.
Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute, points out that the declining birth rate is compounded by a drop in marriage rates, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a slight increase in marriages last year, the overall numbers remain low, with rising divorce rates further complicating family structures. Additionally, Japan has a very low rate of births outside of marriage, with only a few children born out of wedlock per 100 births.
Experts predict that Japan's population decline will persist for decades, a situation exacerbated by the nation’s status as a "super-aged society," where over 20 percent of the population is aged 65 or older. Projections suggest that Japan's total population could shrink from 123.4 million in 2024 to approximately 88 million by 2065 if current trends continue.
The government has recognized the urgency of this demographic crisis and has initiated various measures to address the declining birth rate. These include financial assistance for families with children, expanding childcare services, and promoting flexible work arrangements for parents. However, despite these initiatives, they have yet to reverse the long-standing trend of declining births.
As of May 2025, the gender breakdown of children shows 6.99 million boys and 6.66 million girls. Among these, children aged 12 to 14 years number 3.14 million, while those aged 0 to 2 years total only 2.22 million, further indicating a consistent decline in new births.
In response to the challenges posed by the declining birth rate, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has announced plans to implement a four-day workweek for civil servants to better support working mothers. Additionally, the government has launched the Tokyo Enmusubi app, which utilizes artificial intelligence to match individuals serious about marriage based on their values and attitudes. Users must verify their identities and pay a fee of 11,000 yen (approximately $100) for two years of access to the app.
Japan is not alone in facing demographic challenges. Neighboring countries like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, as well as some European nations such as Spain and Italy, are also experiencing declining birth rates. However, many European countries are more open to immigration as a means to counteract aging populations, a strategy Japan has yet to embrace significantly.
In 2024, China reported a continuous decline in its population for the third consecutive year, with more deaths than births, while India has recently surpassed China as the most populous country in the world. This global trend raises questions about the sustainability of populations in developed nations and the long-term economic implications of aging societies.
As Japan grapples with these pressing issues, the government and society must work together to create an environment conducive to family growth. Without significant changes to economic policies, cultural expectations, and social support systems, the demographic crisis may deepen, leading to far-reaching consequences for future generations.
