The political scene in Japan is heating up as parties ramp up preparations for the upcoming summer House of Councillors election set to take place in 2025. With the last general election resulting in fewer seats for the ruling coalition, every party is working diligently to consolidate their positions and increase their chances of success.
On June 24, the National Diet will open its regular session, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration facing the challenge of gaining cooperation from the opposition to pass the fiscal 2025 budget. Following the recent lower house elections where the coalition lost its majority, the stakes are high as the government’s approval ratings linger at low levels.
During the session, Prime Minister Ishiba will deliver a government policy speech, with significant discussions scheduled among party representatives taking place between June 27 and 29. The budget proposal must clear the House of Representatives by March 2 to be automatically ratified. To secure this, Ishiba intends to negotiate with minor parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), and the Constitutional Democratic Party to align their policies with the government.
A major topic during these discussions involves raising the non-taxable income threshold to 1.78 million yen, which DPP’s members advocate. The Finance Ministry warns this would require approximately 8 trillion yen in additional revenue. Conversely, the Japan Innovation Party's push for free education would demand substantially less funding—around 600 billion yen—which has led to voices within the ruling party favoring collaboration with them instead.
Another focal point of this legislative session is the anticipated meeting between Prime Minister Ishiba and the new U.S. President Trump. The administration has reportedly sought to schedule this meeting for early February, attempting to find dates around the long holiday period.
Compounding the political challenges, issues surrounding political funds have surfaced within the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. Tetsuo Saito, head of the Komeito party, called on Ishiba to address the issue thoroughly within the ruling party to restore public confidence, as it could adversely affect cabinet approval and upcoming elections.
Meanwhile, the political race is intensifying at the municipal level, as evidenced by the Kitakyushu City Council election, which is poised to be the first for the designated city since the lower house elections. Scheduled for June 26, this election features the highest number of candidates ever, with 96 vying for 57 seats.
Yuko Obuchi, head of the LDP’s Organization and Campaign Headquarters, affirmed the party’s commitment to regaining the trust of voters, stating, “We have become the ruling minority, but we will rebuild the LDP and start anew from Kitakyushu.” Amid the backdrop of the scandal surrounding political funds, retaining the current 15 seats will be no small feat.
Saito emphasized the need for the Komeito to win city council elections to rebuild their reputation and success heading toward the summer elections. He stated on May 25, “We must win the Kitakyushu City election and then the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election as we strategize for the upper house elections.”
Opposition parties are also mobilizing, capitalizing on the momentum gained from the previous elections. Yoshihiko Noda, from the Constitutional Democratic Party, expressed his aspirations to accelerate the party’s gains, stating, “We have made substantial progress, and the next phase is pivotal.”
Further competition appears among various political factions, with the Nippon Ishin no Kai aiming for collaboration among opposition parties for the summer election. Daisuke Iwatani, Secretary-General for the party, discussed the organization of preliminary elections based on voting results for the upcoming 2024 general election to facilitate this process.
Other parties, including the Japanese Communist Party, are also aiming to capitalize on increasing public dissatisfaction with the current government. Chairperson Tomoko Tamura has actively called for growth of the JCP’s local representation as they attempt to serve as the primary political alternative.
Political parties are expected to capitalize on this electoral tension, utilizing social media as many candidates without party endorsements are also vying for seats. With the election drawing near, the upcoming months will be pivotal for all parties as they prepare to face voters.
Overall, issues of electoral preparedness, bipartisan negotiations, and the fallout from previous elections are setting the stage for what promises to be one of the most competitive election seasons Japan has witnessed. With each party seeking innovative strategies to connect with voters and deal with pressing social challenges, the electorate will certainly have much to contemplate as they head to the polls for the House of Councillors election.