Japan Faces Rising Fear Ahead Of Predicted July Earthquake

Japan is currently gripped by mounting anxiety as fears of a catastrophic earthquake predicted for early July 2025 swirl through society. This unrest has been fueled by a combination of recent seismic activity, a controversial manga prediction, and the historical threat posed by the Nankai Trough, a known seismic hotspot off Japan's southern coast.

The source of much of the current tension traces back to a manga titled The Future I Saw, authored by Tatsuki Ryoga and first published in 1999. This work eerily predicted the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the global coronavirus pandemic, lending weight to its latest prophecy: a mega-earthquake and tsunami striking Japan on July 5, 2025. Despite the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) labeling these claims as "rumors" and the author himself clarifying that the date is fictional, the prediction has captured public imagination and spread beyond Japan’s borders.

Adding to the unease, seismic activity near the Tokara Islands, southwest of Kagoshima, has intensified dramatically. Since June 21, 2025, over 1,000 earthquakes measuring magnitude 1 or greater have rattled the region. Notably, on July 3 alone, a magnitude 5.0 quake struck 291 kilometers southwest of Kagoshima, followed by a magnitude 5.5 tremor in Toshimamura later that day. Multiple smaller quakes clustered around the Tokara Islands within hours, a rarity that has surpassed previous records of seismic activity in the area.

Such an unprecedented spike in tremors has sparked fears of the "Tokara Rule," an informal notion circulating online that surges in earthquakes near the Tokara Islands often precede a major quake in Japan. While lacking scientific backing, this idea dovetails with the July mega-earthquake theory, amplifying public anxiety.

The Nankai Trough, an 800-kilometer-long oceanic trench along Japan’s Pacific coast, is the geological culprit behind these concerns. This subduction zone, where one tectonic plate slowly slides beneath another, has historically unleashed massive earthquakes every 100 to 200 years. The last such event was in 1946, a magnitude 8.0 quake that claimed approximately 1,100 lives.

Government authorities have taken note but urge calm. The Japanese government acknowledges the possibility of a mega-earthquake but stresses that predicting the exact timing remains impossible. Earlier this year, a government committee raised the probability of a Nankai Trough quake occurring within the next 30 years to between 75 and 82 percent. The potential human toll is staggering, with estimates of up to 298,000 deaths and damages reaching $2 trillion from the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis.

Despite these grim forecasts, current preparedness measures fall short. A 2014 Central Disaster Management Council plan recommended steps that could reduce fatalities by 80 percent, including building embankments and evacuation shelters and conducting regular drills. However, a July 1, 2025 update revealed that existing efforts might only reduce deaths by 20 percent. Prime Minister Kishida Shigeru emphasized the need for cooperation among national and local governments, businesses, and non-profits to save as many lives as possible.

Meanwhile, the recent seismic activity has impacted tourism and business. Domestic flight ticket prices to Japan have plunged by a third, and travel from Chinese-speaking regions has dropped sharply. Steve Huen, an executive at a Hong Kong travel agency, noted, "This rumor has had a significant impact, with Japan-related business decreasing by about 50 percent." Greater Bay Airlines, a low-cost carrier based in Hong Kong, has suspended flights to smaller Japanese cities due to falling demand. Nomura Securities estimates that unfounded disaster predictions could cost the Japanese tourism industry around 560 billion yen (approximately 5.3 trillion won) and reduce Asian tourist arrivals by about 2.4 million between May and October 2025.

Amid the quake fears, volcanic activity has also stirred unease. On July 3, 2025, the Shinmoedake volcano in Kyushu erupted for the first time in seven years. Speculation abounds about the potential for eruptions of Mount Fuji and over 100 other volcanoes across Japan, with volcanic ash temperatures reaching 600 to 700 degrees Celsius, which could turn parts of Japan into a "sea of fire," as some alarmists warn.

South Korea, geographically close to Japan, is also on alert. Experts warn that a mega-earthquake in the Nankai Trough could cause significant shaking in southern Korea, especially in high-rise buildings along the southern coast, including Jeju Island. Professor Hong Tae-kyung of Yonsei University highlighted that during the Myanmar earthquake, buildings in Bangkok, 1,000 kilometers away, shook and even collapsed, underscoring the potential impact on Korea’s southern regions, which lie within 500 kilometers of the Nankai Trough.

However, criticism has been leveled at the South Korean government’s disaster preparedness, which some perceive as inconsistent and insufficient. Given the simulations predicting up to 13 tsunamis radiating from a Nankai mega-quake, the urgency for robust disaster readiness in Korea and neighboring countries is clear.

Despite the swirling rumors and escalating tremors, the Japan Meteorological Agency maintains a firm stance. In an emergency press conference on July 3, 2025, it declared no connection between the recent earthquakes and the anticipated Nankai mega-earthquake, reiterating that any predictions specifying a date are baseless rumors. JMA Director Nomura Ryuchi urged the public to prepare rationally, saying, "Current science cannot predict the location, time, or magnitude of an earthquake, nor determine if one will occur. We ask everyone to take specific measures to be prepared whenever an earthquake happens, but please refrain from irrational actions due to anxiety."

As Japan approaches the predicted date of July 5, 2025, the nation stands at a crossroads between caution and fear, science and speculation. While the manga’s prophecy has stirred imaginations and the recent seismic activity is unprecedented, experts remind the public that preparedness is the best defense against nature’s unpredictability. Whether or not the predicted mega-earthquake strikes on that date, the call to action for governments, communities, and individuals remains the same: prepare now to save lives later.