As Japan and South Korea approach the 60th anniversary of their diplomatic normalization in 2025, their relationship stands at a precarious crossroads. Despite a history fraught with tension and unresolved grievances, recent developments suggest a cautious but determined effort by both nations to navigate a path toward renewed cooperation amid internal political upheavals and a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office in October 2024, faces significant domestic challenges. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the House of Representatives, and the upcoming July 2025 Upper House election looms as a formidable test. Ishiba’s tenure follows that of the late Shinzo Abe, and while he has pledged to maintain his predecessors’ foreign policy direction, his relative inexperience and limited diplomatic allies pose obstacles to sustaining Japan’s international partnerships.
Meanwhile, South Korea has undergone its own political turbulence. Former President Yoon Suk-yeol, who advocated for closer ties with Japan, was impeached in December 2024 following controversy over martial law imposition. Acting President Choi Sang-mok held power briefly but was unable to advance foreign policy initiatives amid deep political divisions.
In early June 2025, Lee Jae-myung was sworn in as South Korea’s new president. Known for his hardline stance toward Japan—once labeling it an “enemy nation” and opposing the institutionalization of the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral security framework—his ascent has sparked concerns of a potential return to a “frozen” period in bilateral relations. Lee’s criticism of Japan intensified after the November 2024 boycott of the Sado mine forced labor victim memorial, which he described as “the worst diplomatic disaster since liberation,” accusing the South Korean government of aiding Japan in erasing the history of over 1,500 Korean forced laborers.
Despite these tensions, shared security concerns loom large. Both countries are alarmed by North Korea’s recent nuclear tests and missile launches, as well as its deepening military ties with Russia, involving exchanges of military technology for weapons. Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya’s visit to Seoul in January 2025 underscored the enduring importance of bilateral cooperation to counter these threats.
In May 2025, the “South Korea-Japan Future Vision Dialogue” held in Tokyo brought experts from both nations together, who agreed that the increasing instability emanating from Pyongyang necessitates new defense cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul. This dialogue also highlighted the broader pressures both countries face from their shared ally, the United States, particularly under the “America First” policy of former President Donald Trump.
This policy has imposed high tariffs on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and electronics, inflicting economic damage on both Japan and South Korea. Additionally, Washington has pressured both to increase defense spending and share the financial burden of hosting US military forces. Professor Kristi Govella of Oxford University, an expert on Indo-Pacific politics, remarked, “A problematic common US ally forces Tokyo and Seoul to seek strategic autonomy and stronger bilateral cooperation mechanisms.”
Reflecting this strategic recalibration, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won proposed joint purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to bolster their bargaining power. Experts at the May dialogue further suggested groundbreaking cooperation initiatives, including co-developing economic and defense projects and establishing coordination frameworks to prevent being disadvantaged in separate negotiations with Washington.
In a notable move toward broader regional collaboration, Japan, South Korea, and China convened a meeting of their economic and trade ministers in Seoul in late March 2025. The agenda focused on promoting trade and infrastructure development to reduce dependence on the US market—a significant step given the rising protectionism under the Trump administration.
South Korea has also publicly expressed interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and working with Japan to revive negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signaling a willingness to deepen economic integration despite political frictions.
Recognizing the sensitivity of historical and political issues, experts at the Future Vision Dialogue recommended establishing “neutral technical platforms” that concentrate on specific projects, thereby creating a buffer zone that allows economic and technological cooperation to proceed even amid political tensions.
Both governments are also investing in people-to-people exchanges, emphasizing youth, scholars, and cultural interactions. A younger generation of South Koreans under 40 holds different perspectives on Japan, and fostering dialogue aims to shape a future relationship with more common ground.
The most recent and perhaps most significant development occurred on June 17, 2025, when Prime Minister Ishiba and President Lee met face-to-face for the first time during the G7 summit in Canada. Despite Lee’s prior hardline rhetoric, he expressed a commitment to pursuing a stable relationship with Japan. Their 30-minute summit resulted in agreements to strengthen trilateral cooperation with the United States to tackle geopolitical crises, including North Korea’s provocations.
The leaders discussed measures to promote peace and stability in the region and underscored the necessity for closer cooperation. They reaffirmed their dedication to resuming shuttle diplomacy and advancing intergovernmental discussions, aiming to enhance future-oriented collaboration amid global trade challenges.
President Lee highlighted that “close and complementary partners like South Korea and Japan can greatly benefit from cooperation in various fields as global trade and issues increase.” Prime Minister Ishiba echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations amid rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. He expressed hope that cooperation at all levels would mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic normalization.
South Korea’s Presidential Office confirmed the two leaders’ agreement to build a “stronger and more mature” relationship grounded in mutual respect and responsibility. This diplomatic thaw follows groundwork laid by former leaders Fumio Kishida and Yoon Suk-yeol, who rekindled reciprocal summit visits in 2023, signaling a warming in Japan-South Korea ties welcomed by the United States given the growing need for trilateral coordination.
Yet, the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. The July 2025 Upper House election in Japan, Lee’s evolving stance on historical issues, and the unpredictable policy direction of the US administration all represent variables that could tip the balance either toward renewed partnership or renewed estrangement.
As Professor Govella aptly noted at the recent Future Vision Forum, “The cost of non-cooperation will rise if the international system becomes more unstable.” Given the current volatility, the stakes have never been higher. For the sake of regional security and prosperity, Tokyo and Seoul must navigate their troubled history and political divisions to walk the narrow path toward a pragmatic and forward-looking partnership.
