Jammu and Kashmir is gearing up for the announcement of its assembly election results on October 8, 2024, following unprecedented exit polls. The region, which recently conducted its first assembly elections since the abrogation of Article 370, is filled with anticipation and speculation based on various exit poll predictions.
The exit polls are throwing light on the political dynamics of Jammu and Kashmir, with several indicating a possible lead for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. Exit polls conducted by different agencies suggest the alliance could capture between 35 to 48 seats—a significant lead, but still shy of the majority needed to form the government.
Congress leader Harish Rawat expressed optimism about the predictions, stating, "People of Jammu and Kashmir have voted for peace, security, brotherhood, development and employment. Congress and National Conference will together form a strong government there and work for peace along with the Union government." This sentiment reflects broader historical trends, considering the region's complex affiliations and alliances within the political spectrum.
On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains undeterred. Former Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Kavinder Gupta stated, "It is only in the Exit polls but BJP will emerge as the biggest party once the correct results are out. We are confident of getting more than 35 seats." Similarly, BJP leader Altaf Thakur noted, "BJP's vote percentage has increased, and it will win around 28-30 seats. I feel we will achieve 32+ seats" especially with expectations to improve their standing even within Kashmir. The BJP's strategy appears to hinge on enhancing its influence, particularly after strong performances previously recorded.
Still, skepticism lingers over the accuracy of exit polls, prompting responses from various parties and candidates. Awami Ittehad Party MP Abdul Rashid voiced caution, saying, "Everybody has the liberty to have exit polls. Let us wait for October 8 as I've never relied on exit polls." His sentiment is echoed by National Conference leader Omar Abdullah, who expressed doubt, remarking, "I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls, especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections." His critiques suggest concern over the reliability of these polls, indicative of broader skepticism around political forecasting.
The exit polls, primarily informed by sample data from voters as they leave polling stations, are generated to reflect broader patterns based on initial sentiments. Namely, they appear to indicate increased voter engagement this election, with overall turnout reaching 63.88%, which could contribute to the shifts seen within political alliances. Such turnout may be emblematic of changing attitudes toward regional governance and the central government's policies.
Results from various polls signal potential for significant changes within the assembly. The J&K Congress chief, Tariq Hameed Karra, pointed to the elections' purpose: "These elections were fought to keep the BJP out of power and restoration for statehood." His comment underlines the urgency many parties feel about retaining or regaining control amid changing voter sentiments.
Nevertheless, the Congress-NC alliance’s predicted strength has not dissuaded competing narratives. Affirming the BJP’s importance within the political playground, BJP chief Ravinder Raina claimed, "I feel BJP will emerge victorious when the results will be out on October 8." His confidence seems rooted more on historical performances than current doubts raised by the opposition.
A significant element of these elections has been the possibility of alliances. While some exit polls suggest the Congress and NC coalition may lead, there are indications it may not reach the requisite majority on its own, raising the specter of potential negotiations with other parties, especially the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Analysts project the PDP could play a decisive role if the alliance falls short of the majority, potentially acting as kingmaker.
Exit polls have also generated public discourse around broader issues affecting Jammu and Kashmir. Protests emerged recently against remarks made by Swami Yati Narsimhanand, with Muslim communities rallying for justice. The protests reflect the social undercurrents influencing electoral sentiments, illustrating how sensitive political and religious issues can become lever points during elections.
Political leaders are now challenged to manage expectations surrounding the exit polls and the actual results. The electoral environment remains fluid, with multiple parties actively contesting and attempting to redirect narratives based on skewed perceptions from otherwise volatile campaigns.
The upcoming results could reshape the political framework within Jammu and Kashmir. With the Supreme Court recently mandatorily encouraging the completion of election processes by September 30, and as candidates await results, the overarching atmosphere is one charged with electric anticipation.
The complexity of Jammu and Kashmir’s political framework—marked by shifting alliances, historical grievances, and nuanced public engagement—is likely to keep its citizens and stakeholders watchful as the results are set to alter the existing political map of the union territory.
