As the 2025 NCAA Tournament heats up, all eyes are on the Kentucky Wildcats, particularly due to their matchup against the upstart Troy Trojans. For the Wildcats, who are seeded third in the tournament, this upcoming game is not just another round—it's a pivotal moment rife with pressure and expectation. Coach Mark Pope's squad is set to face the fourteenth-seeded Troy on March 21, 2025, at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, hoping to avoid becoming the latest high-profile victim of upset history.
Jack Gohlke, a name that echoes through NCAA lore after leading Oakland to a shocking upset of Kentucky the previous year, has once again made headlines with his bold prediction. Gohlke forecasts that Kentucky will once again fall in the first round, this time to Troy, igniting chatter around tournament predictions and upset potentials. His forecast is audacious, as it marks a significant taunt after his previous victory against the Wildcats; last year, he scored 32 points and made 10 three-pointers against Kentucky in that remarkable game.
Gohlke's bracket is particularly intriguing. It features 12 double-digit seeds making it to the second round, and he has picked a Final Four comprising Michigan State, Florida, Duke, and Houston, predicting that Houston will ultimately cut down the nets as champions.
As the Wildcats prepare to navigate through the pressure of critiqued expectations—with current odds placing them as 11.5-point favorites—injuries plague the team. They will want to overcome the absence of key players including Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson, who are sidelined for the season. While starting point guard Lamont Butler is on the mend from a shoulder injury, the overall health and performance of the Wildcats remain concerning factors heading into the matchup.
In contrast, the Trojans—who earned their place in March Madness with a record of 23-10 and strong performances in both the regular season and tournament—are positioned as confident challengers. With their previous NCAA appearances (2003 and 2017) resulting in defeats against powerhouse teams like Duke and Xavier, they are aiming for the program's first-ever postseason win. Coach Scott Cross emphasized the significance of this moment for Troy Basketball, stating: “This is a huge day for Troy Basketball and we’re thrilled to be representing our university and community on a national stage.” He conveyed excitement about the opportunity for his men to showcase their talents and potential.
Historically, Kentucky stands as a titan in college basketball, leading all schools in tournament wins and boasting second only to UCLA for national championships. Their elite status has often made them a target for upsets—a fact highlighted by recent notable defeats. In 2022, St. Peter’s achieved a stunning victory over the Wildcats, adding to their legacy of upsets. Last year, Gohlke's Oakland team also climbed the upset ladder, ultimately ending the tenure of former coach John Calipari.
As the matchup nears, betting markets reflect a strong expectation for a Kentucky victory, with an implied chance of 86.67% at 10.5 points. Yet statistics do not support an inevitable win for the Wildcats—this season, they’ve also struggled with maintaining consistency. While they are one of the top shooting teams nationally, Troy presents unique challenges. Touted as one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in their conference, the Trojans have a standout player in Tayton Conerway, the Sun Belt Player of the Year, who leads in steal rates, adding a strategic layer to their approach this Friday.
Preparing for their first win since their runner-up finish in the 1993 Division II tournament, Troy must find pathways to leverage their abilities against a more credentialed Kentucky competitor. The Trojans have noted the Wildcats’ injury issues as potential cracks in their armor. Gohlke, who continues to share insights on social media, has reignited discussions around the 14-seed upset potential with recent predictions citing Troy’s chance against Kentucky at around 20%, particularly due to the Wildcats’ compromised roster.
The level of uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding March Madness is one factor that makes the tournament so exciting for fans and participants alike. As 30 celebrity brackets are showcased, comparing approaches across various personalities from Maxx Crosby to CC Sabathia—including Gohlke’s own—illustrates the whimsical yet analytical nature of tournament predictions. Celebrity inputs, while novel, often evoke fan engagement and lively discussions about which teams can prevail, adding a surprising charisma to game day.
The results of pre-game statistics and player availability will ultimately shape the landscape of this matchup. A blend of analytical approaches and creative interpretations from all corners fuels the exhilaration of March Madness as Troy strives for their first victory against a powerhouse while Kentucky fights to uphold its legacy and silencing its critics.
The contest between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Troy Trojans will tip off at 7:10 PM ET on Friday, March 21, 2025, promising a night filled with electrifying basketball action and the potential for yet another upset in NCAA history.
