Fourteen years after the dramatic ouster of Laurent Gbagbo from power, Côte d'Ivoire finds itself once again at a political crossroads. The country, long seen as a linchpin of French influence in West Africa, is gripped by turmoil as President Alassane Ouattara, now 83, seeks an unprecedented fourth term in the October 2025 elections. The move has triggered massive protests, accusations of neo-colonial meddling, and a fierce debate over the future of democracy in the nation.
Back in April 2011, the world watched as French and rebel troops stormed the presidential palace in Abidjan. Helicopter gunships pounded the compound, and foreign soldiers forced their way into Gbagbo’s bunker. The former president, cornered with his wife and son, emerged physically unharmed but visibly exhausted—a swollen cheek the only visible mark from the ordeal, as reported by Nigerian Tribune. At the time, the international community, led by France and the United Nations, hailed the intervention as a victory for democracy. Yet, as the years have ticked by, that narrative has come under increasing scrutiny.
According to Peoples Dispatch, the roots of the current crisis can be traced to the very moment Ouattara took power with French military backing. The 2010 election, which saw Ouattara installed as president, was marred by controversy. The election commission’s president, under the protection of French troops, declared Ouattara the winner after the deadline had passed. The Constitutional Council, citing irregularities, reversed the result in favor of Gbagbo, but French military intervention swiftly tipped the scales. Thousands of soldiers and civilians loyal to Gbagbo lost their lives in the ensuing violence, and Gbagbo himself was shipped off to the International Criminal Court (ICC). After years of legal battles, he was acquitted in 2019 and 2021, finally returning to Côte d'Ivoire.
Fast forward to 2025, and the tables have turned. Ouattara, who once promised not to run for a third term, is now pushing for a fourth. He has suspended the country’s constitution and, in a move widely condemned by opposition figures and civil society, barred both Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam—the popular former CEO of Credit Suisse and current leader of the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI-RDA)—from contesting the upcoming election. The exclusion of these two major rivals has only fueled public anger.
On August 9, tens of thousands poured into the streets of Abidjan, chanting “No true democracy without true justice,” as reported by Peoples Dispatch. The protests, which included unions and civil society groups, called not only for political reform but also for wage hikes, better prices for farmers, and tax relief for small enterprises. The economic grievances are real; while Ouattara’s administration boasts an average of 6% growth during his tenure, Atse Désiré of the General Confederation of Workers of Ivory Coast (CGT-CI) argues, “The wealth produced by the workers did not benefit them. Apart from a few meager gains concerning salary supplements, the workers have gained nothing since Ouattara took power, despite all the struggles – most of which were repressed with dismissals, arrests, salary suspensions, and deductions.”
France’s role in the unfolding drama remains a subject of fierce debate. Achy Ekissi, General Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist Party of Ivory Coast (PCRCI), told Peoples Dispatch that France is “closely watching over the upcoming elections in October in its former colony, to ensure its protégé, President Alassane Ouattara, does not lose.” While Paris has made symbolic gestures urging Ouattara to step aside, Ekissi contends, “France is in reality, supporting his dictatorial drift because they have not yet found another pawn to replace him.”
The accusation is not without historical precedent. For decades, France has maintained a tight grip on Côte d'Ivoire, both economically and militarily. Even as Ouattara announced the withdrawal of French forces in his 2025 New Year address, analysts noted that the 1961 military agreements remained intact. The 43rd BIMA (Marine Infantry Battalion) would be handed over to Ivorian forces, but France would retain smaller bases and training schools—a move some describe as merely cosmetic.
The opposition is anything but united, however. Thiam’s PDCI-RDA, the oldest political party in the country, once ruled as a one-party dictatorship under France’s watchful eye. Its recent shift to the opposition came after Ouattara reneged on a power-sharing agreement. Thiam, who returned from exile in 2022 and took over party leadership in 2023, has become a formidable political force. Yet, as Ekissi observes, “Contradictions between Thiam and Gbagbo have been set aside for the moment. But as soon as the ban against their participation in the 2025 election is lifted, this alliance will come to an end.”
The broader context is equally fraught. Across West Africa, France’s influence is waning. Its traditional allies in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have been ousted since 2020, and even Senegal, Benin, Guinea, Ghana, and Nigeria are seen as less reliable partners. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has openly accused France of supporting terror operations aimed at destabilizing their governments. In Côte d'Ivoire, anti-French sentiment is on the rise, with popular movements demanding an end to what they see as neo-colonial control.
Meanwhile, Ouattara has justified his bid for a fourth term by citing the country’s ongoing security, economic, and monetary challenges. He argues that his experience is indispensable, claiming, “The country’s ongoing security, economic, and monetary challenges require my experienced leadership.” This justification rings hollow for many, who see it as a thinly veiled attempt to cling to power indefinitely.
The exclusion of Gbagbo and Thiam from the ballot has left many Ivorians questioning the legitimacy of the upcoming election. The August protests marked the first united action by opposition forces, but as Ekissi points out, “On the question of governing, there is not yet any agreement between the political coalition led by Thiam and the sovereigntists.” The fragmentation of the opposition, combined with state repression—including arrests, salary suspensions, and violent crackdowns—has made it difficult to mount a sustained challenge to Ouattara’s rule.
As the October election approaches, the stakes could hardly be higher. The outcome will not only determine the future of Côte d'Ivoire’s democracy but also signal the direction of French influence in the region. Will the international community step in to demand a fair contest, or will history repeat itself with another contested result and foreign-backed intervention?
For now, Ivorians are left to grapple with a familiar dilemma: the promise of democracy, undermined by power plays, foreign interests, and a leadership unwilling to let go. The coming months will show whether the country can break free from its troubled past or remain trapped in a cycle of contested power and popular unrest.