In February 2025, Italy's foreign trade displayed a notable uptick, with exports estimated to grow by 3.5% in comparison to a modest 1.7% increase in imports. This information comes from the Istat report on foreign trade and import prices, highlighting a shift in the trade balance that has garnered attention from economists and policymakers alike.
The monthly export growth reflects a dual surge in both the EU (+3.7%) and extra-EU (+3.2%) markets. When examining the quarter from December 2024 to February 2025, exports increased by 4.0%, outpacing imports, which rose by 3.0%. However, on an annual basis, exports saw a slight increase of 0.8% in monetary terms, while the volume of exports decreased by 4.3%. This discrepancy raises questions about the sustainability of growth in the face of declining volumes.
Interestingly, the increase in export value was primarily driven by the EU markets, which saw a growth of 3.0%, while extra-EU markets faced a contraction of 1.6%. In terms of imports, there was a 4.1% growth in value, particularly from the non-EU area (+8.7%), while imports from the EU area grew only by 1.0%. However, in volume terms, imports decreased by 2.7%, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns or market dynamics.
Several sectors contributed significantly to the trend growth in exports, notably the pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal, and botanical articles, which surged by 31.2%. Other sectors, such as means of transport, excluding motor vehicles, also saw a robust increase of 9.6%. Yet, not all sectors fared well; exports of coke and refined petroleum products plummeted by 25.8%, and motor vehicles saw a decrease of 11.5% on an annual basis.
On the international front, certain countries emerged as key contributors to the increase in Italian exports. Germany led the charge with a remarkable 14.5% growth, followed closely by Spain (+21.1%), Switzerland (+17.3%), and the United Kingdom (+10.4%). In contrast, the United States, Belgium, Turkey, and Austria reported significant declines in their imports from Italy, with the U.S. experiencing a downturn of 9.6%.
In the first two months of 2025, exports recorded a trend increase of 1.6%, largely driven by higher sales in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors (+32.3%) and food products (+4.9%). However, the negative contributions from sectors like coke and refined petroleum products (-21.1%) and machinery (-3.8%) cannot be overlooked, as they highlight vulnerabilities in the export landscape.
Shifting focus to import prices, February 2025 saw a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual rise of 2.2%, which was an uptick from January's 1.4%. This increase in import prices, coupled with a trade balance that returned to positive territory (+4.466 million euros) after a slight deficit in January (-288 million euros), suggests a recovery in trade dynamics. However, the energy deficit remains a concern, standing at -5.000 million euros, which is higher than the previous year’s figure of -3.749 million euros.
In the broader context of Italy's industrial landscape, the two-year period of 2023-2024 has seen Italian industrial districts reaffirm their significance in the national manufacturing sector. Despite global economic slowdowns, exports from these districts reached record levels, alongside a trade surplus that exceeded 100 billion euros for the first time, as noted in the seventeenth edition of the Economic and Financial Report of the Industrial Districts by Intesa Sanpaolo.
In 2024, industrial district exports hit a historical high of 163.4 billion euros, marking a 0.9% growth compared to the previous year. This growth was supported by a contraction in imports of 1.9%, widening the gap between foreign sales and purchases. The average export distance also increased to 3.434 kilometers, reflecting a growing international reach.
Among the sectors driving this growth, the agri-food sector stood out with a 7.1% increase. However, 2023 saw a slight drop in overall turnover for district companies (-0.5%, equating to 344 billion euros), even as operating margins improved, with the EBITDA margin rising to 8.1% from 7.6% in the previous year.
Financially, district companies have made significant progress, with net equity reaching 34.4% of liabilities, reflecting a three-percentage point increase in just one year. Additionally, the average liquidity of these companies stands at about 10% of their assets, providing a cushion for future investments in innovation and sustainability.
A notable segment within the district system comprises approximately 8% of companies that are characterized by growth potential, internationalization, and a commitment to quality and sustainability. These "champion" companies are typically younger and more dynamic, often leading in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) issues, and achieving superior profitability through investments in quality and digital innovation.
As the digital and ecological transitions continue to take center stage, 43.6% of district companies are adopting measures to reduce energy consumption, while over a third have invested in renewable energy production facilities. This shift not only enhances their competitive edge but also aligns with global sustainability goals.
The emphasis on human capital and business continuity has proven vital for competitiveness, with skilled employment in the districts growing by over 94,000 highly skilled workers from 2011 to 2023. Moreover, the incidence of workplace accidents has decreased to 18.5 per thousand employees, indicating a positive shift towards worker safety and well-being.
As Italy navigates through these economic challenges and opportunities, the resilience shown by its industrial districts and the positive trends in foreign trade could serve as a beacon of hope for sustained economic growth.