Italy is facing significant challenges in its energy transition, as highlighted in a report released by Italy for Climate on April 22, 2025, coinciding with Earth Day. The report reveals troubling trends in climate and energy for the year 2024, indicating that the country is not progressing adequately and is incurring rising costs from the ongoing climate crisis.
One of the most alarming findings is the dramatic increase in extreme weather events, which have tripled since 2018. The report cites a staggering 3,631 extreme weather occurrences in Italy, including 1,600 instances of intense rainfall. This surge in climate-related incidents is a stark reminder of the escalating climate crisis that Italy is grappling with.
Moreover, temperatures in Italy have risen by an average of +1.5 °C when compared to the 1991-2020 average, significantly outpacing the global average increase of +0.65 °C. Such a temperature rise is indicative of the broader trends of climate change affecting the region.
Despite these alarming developments, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions has been minimal, with a decrease of only approximately -2.3% in 2024, a significant drop from the -6.5% achieved in 2023. This stagnation in emission reductions coincides with a rise in energy consumption, primarily driven by the transportation and building sectors.
However, there is a glimmer of hope in the renewable energy sector. Wind and solar power have made strides, with an increase of +7.5 GW in new installed capacity in 2024, a notable rise from 5.7 GW in 2023. Yet, this progress falls short of the annual target of over 10 GW needed to meet the 2030 goals. Renewable sources accounted for 49% of Italy's national energy production in 2024, marking a significant step toward energy independence.
Italy's energy dependence on foreign sources has also seen a positive trend, decreasing by 7 percentage points over the past two years, from 79% in 2022 to 72% in 2024. This reduction is partly attributed to the growth of renewable energy sources, which have lessened the reliance on expensive fossil fuel imports.
Despite these advancements in renewable energy, the overall climate and energy trends in 2024 are concerning. Edo Ronchi, president of the Foundation for Sustainable Development, expressed his worries, stating, "After the significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions last year, Italy's slowdown in 2024 - with a reduction estimated at only around 2% - is very concerning. The sectors that are increasing emissions (transportation and buildings) are those reliant on national measures, outside the European ETS regulation for large plants."
In the building sector, the cessation of the 110% superbonus program due to unsustainable costs has left a void with no new, effective measures to promote energy savings and emission reductions. In transportation, there are calls to delay decarbonization measures, continuing to promote gasoline and diesel vehicles while neglecting investments in public transport and cycling infrastructure. Ronchi noted that both the construction and automotive sectors are among the hardest hit by the crisis, emphasizing that slowing down decarbonization today also hinders innovation, investment, and development.
As Italy grapples with these pressing issues, there is also growing public interest in the anticipated weather patterns for July and August 2025. Meteorological enthusiasts and ordinary citizens alike are keen to understand the implications of the upcoming summer months, crucial for tourism, infrastructure, agriculture, and public health.
Long-term forecasts suggest that average monthly temperatures could exceed typical thresholds by 1°C, 2°C, or even 3°C, setting the stage for a potentially scorching summer. The strengthening of the African anticyclone is expected to play a significant role, potentially settling over much of peninsular and insular Italy by late June. This high-pressure system could lead to prolonged periods of dry and hot weather, with maximum temperatures frequently surpassing 36-38°C in the central and southern inland areas.
The current sea surface temperatures in the Tyrrhenian Sea, Ionian Sea, and southern Adriatic Sea are already over 1°C above the seasonal norm. This increase is alarming, as warmer marine waters can amplify thermal contrasts with cooler air aloft, raising the likelihood of intense weather phenomena such as sudden thunderstorms, violent hailstorms, and concentrated downpours.
Should these forecasts materialize, Italy may face extreme weather events reminiscent of recent years but potentially with greater intensity and frequency. The regions most at risk include low-lying coastal areas and mountainous slopes susceptible to sudden convective developments.
The consequences of a July characterized by high temperatures and scarce precipitation could be severe, particularly for the agricultural sector. Crops of cereals, vegetables, and summer fruits may suffer irreversible damage due to the lack of rain and excessive evaporation. Central and Southern Italy, especially regions like Puglia, Basilicata, Calabria, and Sicily, could experience chronic water shortages, exacerbating an already critical water situation in many areas.
Urban areas in Italy are also at risk of becoming 'urban heat islands,' where nighttime temperatures in cities like Rome, Milan, Florence, and Bologna could reach 28-30°C, with daytime peaks exceeding 40°C. This phenomenon is driven by the heat retention of asphalt and concrete, which prevents temperatures from dropping to sustainable levels during the night.
The trends outlined in current forecasts are not isolated incidents but part of a broader pattern of global meteorological changes transforming summer conditions in the Mediterranean basin. Over the last few decades, there has been a consistent rise in summer temperatures, accompanied by a marked decrease in the frequency and intensity of summer rainfall.
As Italian summers evolve into extended periods of stable, dry, and sweltering weather, the rare unstable incursions that do occur have become increasingly violent and sudden, causing significant damage. This tropicalization of the weather is not limited to Italy but extends to neighboring countries like Spain, Greece, Croatia, and southern France, where heatwaves are becoming more frequent.
The risk of progressive climatic desertification in many areas of Southern Europe poses serious threats to tourism, agriculture, water resources, and public health. As Italy prepares for the summer ahead, the challenge of addressing these climate and energy issues remains urgent and critical.
