Italy is witnessing a significant decline in influenza cases as the peak of the 2025 season seems to have passed. Recent reports from the Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità or ISS) offer hope as they indicate the incidence of influenza and related diseases has returned to moderate levels.
According to the latest data from the RespiVirNet surveillance system, during the fifth week of 2025, which spanned from January 27 to February 2, there were approximately 973,000 cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) reported. This marks a decrease from the previous week when over 1 million cases were documented. The incidence rate has now dropped to 16.5 cases per thousand assisted individuals, down from 17.4 cases reported the week prior.
The decline is notable, particularly among vulnerable groups. The greatest impact continues to be felt among children under five years of age, who are experiencing an incidence rate of 43 cases per 1,000 assisted, only slightly down from 43.7 the prior week. The report indicates stability among pediatric age groups, with some signs of reduction among young adults and the elderly.
Overall, since the beginning of this flu season, over 9.8 million Italians have contracted respiratory illnesses, according to the ISS. The regions most affected include Lombardy, the autonomous province of Bolzano, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Marche, Abruzzo, Campania, Puglia, and Sardinia.
Notably, the proportion of analyzed samples testing positive for influenza decreased to 34% during the latest reporting week, compared to the previous week’s 39.3%. Among 3,471 clinical samples processed, 1,182 tested positive for the influenza virus, which included 818 cases of type A (with specific subtypes reported being H1N1pdm09 and H3N2) and 364 cases of type B.
Alongside influenza, the report suggests there is significant co-circulation of other respiratory viruses. Positive results included those for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), SARS-CoV-2, rhinoviruses, metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, bocaviruses, and parainfluenza viruses. This mix of viruses is contributing to the current incidence of ILI observed during the defined week.
Experts are cautiously optimistic. The recent downtrend suggests the flu peak has been surpassed. "The declining number of cases suggests we may have reached the season's peak, especially after three months of continuous growth leading to the significant uptick we saw,” stated Massimo Andreoni, director of the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical Diseases (SIMIT).
Despite the overall decline, there remains concern over the pressure on healthcare services, as hospitals have reported increased admissions primarily due to complications arising from respiratory infections. There have been reported challenges at emergency departments, with overcrowding and delayed admissions due to increased patient loads.
Interestingly, even high-profile individuals, such as Pope Francis, have been affected by respiratory issues amid the rising cases. The Vatican announced his engagements have been adjusted due to bronchitis.
The symptoms during this influenza season have reportedly been more persistent, with acute symptoms lasting longer and participants noting prolonged periods of fatigue, headache, and muscle pain following the flu.
Looking forward, healthcare professionals are emphasizing the importance of vaccinations, as current coverage remains below optimal levels. "Improving vaccination rates is imperative for future flu seasons," noted Dr. Fabrizio Pregliasco, highlighting the need to bolster preventative efforts before the next flu wave strikes.
The findings from this recent surveillance report provide the Italian public and health officials with valuable insights, not only reflecting the current state of the influenza epidemic but also serving as guidance for future public health strategies. Staying informed and prepared is now more important than ever as Italy closes this chapter of its flu season and prepares for what lies ahead.