Italy will host Germany in the quarter-final match of the League of Nations on March 20, 2025, at San Siro Stadium. This highly anticipated matchup has fans buzzing as it serves as a premium display in international football history. However, Italy has struggled against Germany in recent encounters, not securing a victory in their last 12 meetings.
The Italian national team last faced defeat on November 17, 2024, losing 1:3 to France at the same venue. This match was part of a turbulent journey for the Azzurri, who aim to bounce back following an underwhelming performance in Euro 2024, where they were knocked out by Switzerland in the knockout stages. Yet, under the guidance of coach Luciano Spalletti, Italy managed to qualify for the playoffs of the League of Nations, recording four wins out of six in the group stage.
Italy has upgraded its squad in recent matches, with notable absences due to injuries. Twilio will show the attack with players such as Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean leading the line. The midfield will likely consist of Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella, while a solid defensive lineup that might feature Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Bastoni will be essential to controlling the game. Despite recent setbacks, they have proven to be a force at home. The expectations for this match are that both teams will likely score, given Italy's attacking style.
On the other hand, Germany enters the match in solid form. The team, managed by Julian Nagelsmann, has shown incredible prowess in their journey through the League of Nations group stage, finishing first without ever facing defeat, scoring 18 goals while only conceding four. Moreover, Germany’s last head-to-head encounter with Italy ended in a convincing 5:2 victory. However, key players such as Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz will be missing due to injuries, affecting their attacking dynamics.
Germany's preferred formation has shifted towards a more attacking style, which may present challenges against an Italian defense that has struggled. Germany’s recent matches have seen them dominating possession and creating numerous opportunities. Their last match resulted in a draw against Hungary, but they previously dismantled Bosnia and Herzegovina in a 7:0 flexing their considerable attacking muscles. With the absence of their primary goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and fellow custodian Marc-André ter Stegen, who are both recovering from injuries, concerns grow regarding their backline stability.
This matchup is not just another quarter-final; it provides an opportunity for redemption for Italy. The Azzurri need to leverage their home advantage at the iconic San Siro, packed with passionate fans eager to spur them on. Many pundits view this clash as a close call, with betting odds suggesting a tight contest. Bookmakers have set Italy and Germany as nearly equal favorites, each with odds hovering around 2.80, showcasing the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Experts are predicting that the game could easily end in a tie, while a few believe Italy could edge past Germany by a narrow margin, capitalizing on home ground adrenaline. Statistics indicate that the teams often produce low-scoring matches, which begs the question if the expectation of a high score is faulty.
Bookmakers suggest several interesting bets, including the total goals under 2.5, which is also likely, considering the playing styles of both teams. With the away legs in the playoffs beginning in Dortmund, the tension for this first leg remains palpable, and both sides will want to establish an early advantage.
As play begins at 22:45 Moscow time, all eyes will be on the players to see which squad can capitalize on their opportunities. Will Italy break their losing streak against Germany, or will the industrious German side prevail in Milan? The match promises to serve not just as a battle of tactics but also a rich display of football philosophy, making it one of the most eagerly awaited contests of the year.
