As Italy approaches Liberation Day on April 25, the weather forecast indicates a period of variable conditions, following a turbulent weather phase that has particularly affected the northern regions. Heavy rains, intense thunderstorms, and localized flooding have created significant disruptions, including issues with road traffic. The weather alerts issued by the Civil Protection Agency, the only authorized body for such warnings, have proven to be timely and accurate.
In stark contrast, the southern parts of Italy, especially along the lower Adriatic and Ionian areas, have experienced different weather conditions, albeit not without their own challenges. The Scirocco winds have dominated the scene, reaching gusts of 90-95 km/h, causing damage such as fallen trees and broken branches while also raising large amounts of Saharan dust into the atmosphere. Fortunately, the situation began to improve from Friday, April 18, as an anticyclonic impulse moved across the peninsula, bringing clear skies and pleasant temperatures, particularly in the Center-South.
The weather looks promising for Easter Sunday, which is expected to be largely sunny and tranquil. However, the post-Easter Monday period may still bring turbulence. According to forecasts, a gradual strengthening of the Atlantic anticyclone could temporarily block more organized Atlantic disturbances. Nevertheless, new pockets of instability are likely to develop east of the anticyclone, affecting the Mediterranean basin.
The most probable scenario indicates the arrival of a fresh air impulse from the northern quadrants between Tuesday, April 22, and Wednesday, April 23, 2025, leading to the formation of a mild low-pressure area. This context suggests a potential deterioration in weather conditions, especially in the Central-South, making Wednesday a particularly unstable day. On Tuesday, April 22, the depression linked to the disturbance between Easter and Easter Monday is expected to move away from the Ionian Sea towards the eastern Mediterranean.
On that Tuesday, the forecast predicts mostly sunny weather along the coasts of the peninsular regions and in the Val Padana during the morning. However, the risk of rain remains, particularly in the central-eastern Alps, internal areas of Central Italy, the Venezie, and Emilia, with evening showers expected in Lombardy. Temperatures are projected to remain mild, slightly above normal, with slight increases in the North and Sardinia, while experiencing slight decreases in the Tyrrhenian regions. Winds are expected to be moderate, especially from the Mistral over the Tyrrhenian Sea and Islands.
As for Wednesday, April 23, instability is anticipated to intensify, with conditions favorable for showers or thunderstorms in the North, starting from the Triveneto region, and extending to the Central-South, particularly in inland areas, Puglia, and the lower Tyrrhenian Sea. The risk of rainfall is lower in Sardinia and the western-central part of Sicily. Increased cloud cover and showers are expected to lead to a drop in maximum temperatures in the Central-South. The Mistral wind will further intensify over the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Islands, potentially reaching strong winds in Sardinia.
On Thursday, April 24, a further unstable core descending from central Europe is expected to reach the North by the morning, subsequently affecting the Center, including Sardinia, Campania, and Puglia. Maximum temperatures are likely to decrease in the Center-North while temporarily rising in the South. For Liberation Day on Friday, April 25, the instability is forecasted to shift towards the southern regions and Sicily, while other areas may experience sunnier and warmer weather, with only residual phenomena expected in mountainous areas.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the current scenario sees a risk of further unstable phases, particularly in the Center-North. Between April 26 and April 28, forecasts become increasingly uncertain. Italy could find itself caught between residual fresh and unstable currents from the east, which would maintain dynamic conditions in the South, or a tentative return to weather stability in the Center-North due to a possible resurgence of the anticyclone.
Given the unpredictability of the weather, staying updated with the latest forecasts is highly recommended. The Civil Protection Agency and meteorological services will continue to monitor the situation closely, providing timely information to help residents prepare for any potential weather changes. As the nation gears up for Liberation Day, the evolving weather patterns remind everyone of the need to remain vigilant and informed.
