As the world adjusts to shifting economic landscapes, the potential imposition of tariffs by the United States on foreign goods poses a significant threat to the Italian export market, particularly impacting the southern regions of the country. According to recent studies from the Cgia di Mestre, the lack of product diversification in these areas amplifies the consequences of these tariffs. Sardinia, which relies heavily on petroleum refinement, Molise, with its exports in chemicals and automotive parts, and Sicily, known for its petroleum products, are among the regions expected to suffer most. Puglia stands out as the only Southern region with a well-diversified export portfolio, providing it with a hedge against the impending trade challenges.
In 2024, Italian exports reached €623.5 billion, marking a 0.4% decrease from the previous year, but showcasing a remarkable 30% growth compared to 2019 figures. Lombardy leads the pack, exporting €163.9 billion, followed by Emilia Romagna and Veneto with €83.6 billion and €80.1 billion respectively. Milan is the province with the highest exports at €57.9 billion, with Turin, Florence, Vicenza, Bergamo, and Brescia following closely behind. In terms of product categories, Italy's top exports include medicines and pharmaceuticals, machinery, food processing equipment, vehicles, and jewelry, each playing a pivotal role in the country’s economic output.
Claudio Feltrin, president of FederlegnoArredo, expressed his concerns regarding the looming tariffs during an interview with Italpress, highlighting that the wood and furniture industry exports significantly, with 53% of its output directed abroad. Feltrin noted, “We are obviously very worried about Trump’s tariff announcements, as they could undermine our market.” While tariffs targeting China may indirectly affect the Italian sector, he reassured that the Italian woodcraft focuses primarily on high-end and luxury products, which contrasts with lower-quality Chinese exports.
For 2024, the wood and furniture industry is projected to see a slight decline of 3.1% in turnover, attributed to extraordinary performances in previous years post-COVID-19. In fact, prior to the pandemic, this sector generated revenues of around €41 billion, closing 2022 at nearly €57 billion. The industry remains optimistic with an expected turnover of €51-52 billion, up compared to 2019.
On the ground, Sicilian President Renato Schifani addressed the challenges facing the agro-food sector, citing an annual export value of €780 million to the U.S., primarily consisting of olive oil, wine, and pasta. He predicts a potential revenue drop of 30 to 40% if tariffs are imposed. To mitigate this impact, Schifani announced plans to allocate at least €5 million to help local farmers explore new markets and facilitate participation in trade fairs. “We are not providing subsidies, which would violate EU regulations, but rather helping businesses adapt to these challenges,” he remarked.
The Sicilian government is also prioritizing measures to address other economic emergencies, including funds for adjusting laboratory tariffs and aiming for a structural increase in GDP, reflecting a commitment to long-term recovery rather than temporary fixes. Schifani’s administration is actively coordinating with various stakeholders and the regional chambers of commerce to enhance support for exporters.
Moreover, environmental concerns intertwined with economic growth are emerging as pressing issues. The regional government is preparing for new mobile desalination plants to address ongoing water scarcity issues, crucial for both agricultural and culinary sectors. Schifani stated that by June 2025, they expect to operate three new facilities which will provide 300 liters per second of freshwater. “By increasing capacity, we hope to mitigate water shortages significantly,” he explained.
Additionally, Schifani revealed the Sicilian government’s acknowledgment of the economic burden of exporting waste, which costs local authorities about €100 million per annum. “We must find a sustainable solution domestically to avoid these exorbitant costs,” he noted, while emphasizing ongoing projects to enhance infrastructure related to waste management.
The agricultural and industrial sectors are gearing up for what could be a challenging period if the U.S. proceeds with tariffs. While fears are rife, local authorities remain committed to ensuring support mechanisms are in place to weather the storm. In this context, both the wood and furniture industry leaders and the agro-food sectors in Sicily are strategizing to remain competitive and thrive despite international economic pressures. Notably, the implementation of the European regulation Eudr, aimed at combating deforestation, has been postponed until the end of 2025, though compliance remains a key concern for stakeholders in the wood industry.
The Italian economic landscape is showing resilience as it navigates these complex challenges, but only time will tell how effectively it can respond to potential trade disruptions and more importantly, how its export sectors can adapt in an ever-evolving market.
