On February 3, 2025, the latest SWG political poll released for TgLa7 indicates slight declines for Italy's two leading parties, Fratelli d'Italia and the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico). Although these decreases are not alarming, they represent notable shifts. The ruling party led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni retains its position as the strongest political force with 29.5% support. Meanwhile, the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle) shows positive momentum, reversing previous trends with its support inching closer to 12%, reaching 11.8%.
This latest SWG update suggests there are no surprising disruptions among the parties. Fratelli d'Italia remains dominant at 29.5%, though its support has dipped by 0.2% compared to the previous week. This slight decline, somewhat expected, may reflect the influence of recent controversies surrounding Premier Meloni. Notably, the investigation involving the Almasri case and the scrutiny over Minister of Tourism Daniela Santanché's decisions concerning immigration policies might be weighing on public sentiment.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party has also experienced a marginal reduction, landing at 22.6%, mirroring Fratelli d'Italia's decrease of 0.2%. Despite this downturn, the situation is not entirely bleak for the opposition. The Five Star Movement is on the rise, gaining 0.4% from the last poll. For party leader Giuseppe Conte, this is encouraging news as the movement seeks to firmly establish itself above the 12% mark following weeks hovering around the lower 11% threshold.
Further analyzing the center-right coalition reveals mixed fortunes. Forza Italia, led by Antonio Tajani, remains unchanged at 9.1%, displaying stability above Matteo Salvini's Lega, which fell to 8.3%, down by 0.1%. The other opposition party, Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra, is stable at 6.5%, presenting no notable shifts. Within minor parties, Azione led by Carlo Calenda dips slightly to 3.1%, whereas Italia Viva, fronted by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, sees a tiny increase to 2.9%. +Europa also stands at 2.1%, with Noi Moderati lagging at 1.2%.
Despite these electoral trends, the poll reveals approximately 30% of surveyed individuals remain undecided, though this figure indicates a slight decrease compared to prior weeks. This uncertainty could be pivotal as the political scene continues to evolve.
Overall, the results from SWG for TgLa7 on February 3, 2025, spotlight Fratelli d'Italia's continued lead at 29.5% (-0.2%), followed closely by the Democratic Party at 22.6% (-0.2%) and the Eight Star Movement at 11.8% (+0.4%). These shifts hint at the potential for dramatic reforms within Italian politics, especially if the rising sentiment for the Five Star Movement sustains momentum.
The situation remains fluid, with analysts closely monitoring how external factors, such as political controversies and shifts within party leadership, might influence future polls. Looking closely at these changes, it's clear Italy's political dynamics are set to adjust amid increasing voter engagement with rising and falling party fortunes.