The geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East has seen significant upheaval following the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s ousting has created both peril and opportunities for neighboring Israel, which perceives the downfall of this longtime adversary as both a threat from possible regional chaos and as a chance to curb Iran’s growing influence through Syria.
Israel’s military, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), wasted no time after the fall of Assad. Reports indicate they conducted around 350 airstrikes targeting various military assets across Syria. This intensive operation, dubbed "Operation Bashan Arrow," aimed to neutralize potential threats, including advanced weaponry currently at risk of being seized by groups hostile to Israel, such as Hezbollah.
Initially, the IDF targeted chemical weapon sites and long-range rocket facilities. The military operations expanded to include anything from naval assets to missile factories. One notable airstrike took out the Syrian Navy's capabilities by sinking six Osa II-class missile boats at the port of Latakia. Israeli officials assert they successfully destroyed much of the Syrian military’s capacity before it could fall under the control of extremist factions vying for power.
The operation was extensive, with the Israeli military conducting airstrikes on locations like weapons depots, air defense installations, and even research centers rumored to be associated with chemical arms production. The assault underscored Israel's objective to prevent scenarios reminiscent of the past, where Assad's regime had utilized chemical weapons against its own people—a terrifying legacy the region is reluctant to revisit.
Ordinarily based on intelligence, Israel claims its strikes were conducted with minimal civilian casualties. Reports to date indicate no known civilian injuries, though specific locations hit were reportedly monitored by militant groups and journalists had limited access to assess the resulting damage.
Israel’s strategic moves have raised eyebrows internationally, particularly as this might violate the terms of the UN-controlled ceasefire arrangement established after the Yom Kippur War. Critics argue their actions seem like opportunism—a land grab disguised as measures for national security. The Israeli military’s advance included taking control of parts of the demilitarized buffer zone—a move condemned by many as controversial and provocative.
Reflecting on the multi-dimensional threats facing its borders, Israel sees the potential return of Iranian military personnel to Syria as one of the most significant dangers after Assad’s fall. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained firm, noting any new Syrian leadership interested in cooperating with Iran or allowing weapon transfers to Hezbollah would face severe repercussions. "We intend to safeguard our security by any means necessary," Netanyahu declared.
Recent tensions trace back not just to the Syrian civil war's immediate fallout but also to broader regional dynamics. The Iranian influence over Syrian territory has been viewed as destabilizing, contributing to Israel’s urgency to conduct preemptive strikes. Consequently, Israel has consistently voiced the need to disarm potential threats before they can materialize within Syria, especially with Iran’s history of supplying munitions to Hezbollah and other militant organizations.
The rise of rival factions within Syria has also added complexity to Israel’s calculations. Not all groups vying for control are aligned with Iran or Hezbollah, which presents both risks and opportunities for Israeli policy. The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which played a significant role in Assad's ousting, is seen as closely tied with Al-Qaeda and poses its own challenges. Nevertheless, this faction's emergence also introduces the prospect of alternative governance, which could dramatically shift regional relationships.
Despite the devastation wrought by years of civil war, Israel’s objective remains singular: to prevent Hezbollah and Iranian forces from using Syrian territory for military operations against it. The IDF’s recent strikes signal its preparedness to initiate whatever actions deemed necessary to protect borders and curtail any military re-establishment by these groups.
Even as Israeli officials proclaim their intentions are strictly defensive, they tread on increasingly tenuous ground. The UN expressed concerns about the impact these military actions may have on the prospect of forming a new Syrian government and whether outside interventions can destabilize transitional efforts.
"This needs to stop," said UN envoy Geir Pedersen, calling for restraint among international actors to avoid complicate the delicate balance during Syria’s reconstruction phase.
Looking forward, Israel stands at a crossroads. It must navigate the challenging terrain of both external and domestic pressures. Netanyahu’s warning to the new Syrian authorities lays down the gauntlet: cooperation with Iran will not be tolerated and might lead to harsher military responses, thereby ensuring Israel's geopolitical interests are safeguarded.
The fate of Syria and its potential alignment with Iran will reverberate through the region and significantly influence Israel's subsequent strategies as it seeks to balance security imperatives with the need for regional stability.
