The recent upheaval in Syria has led to significant shifts within the region, particularly capturing the attention of Israel, which has reacted swiftly to the power vacuum left by the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. Following the fall of Assad on December 8, 2022, as reported by multiple sources, Israel intensified its military activities against Syrian military sites near Tartous, marking some of the heaviest airstrikes encountered by Syrian forces since 2012.
Israeli warplanes targeted strategic locations, including air defense units and missile depots, during the night of December 10. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights noted these attacks reflect Israel's strategic objective to cripple the military capabilities of any potential adversaries post-Assad's regime. It’s reported as “the heaviest strikes since 2012,” emphasizing Israel's commitment to maintaining its military edge.
On the diplomatic front, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to double the population of Israeli-occupied Golan Heights amid the shifting political dynamics. This initiative, with approval for funding amounting to 40 million shekels (about 10.6 million euros), is perceived as not just demographic expansion but also as consolidation of Israeli sovereignty over the area, which Netanyahu declared, “the Golan will forever be part of the State of Israel.”
This declaration by Netanyahu came on the heels of the Assad regime's collapse and aligns with Israel's longstanding position on the strategic importance of the Golan Heights, which affords it significant military advantages over Syria.
While Israel’s military activity escalated, so did the humanitarian situation inside Syria. Geir Pedersen, the UN envoy to Syria, made his first visit to Damascus since Assad's fall, advocating for humanitarian aid and cautioning against potential vengeance targeting Assad loyalists. Pedersen’s discussions, particularly with Abou Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), revolved around the necessity for re-evaluated approaches to the UN resolution guiding the Syrian peace process.
Al-Jolani, rebelling against the Assad regime and leading radical factions, responded by insisting on the need for improved conditions for civilians and emphasizing unity among the rebel factions. HTS has declared its intention to reform and move away from its jihadist image, even as it remains classified as terrorist by many Western nations.
The geopolitical ramifications of these events extend beyond military strikes and territorial claims. Reports indicate approximately 7,600 Syrian refugees attempted to return from Turkey to Syria shortly after Assad’s fall, signifying increasing instability but also potentially renewed hope for some who wish to reintegrate.
While Israel appears firmly committed to solidifying its claims over the Golan Heights, regional dynamics are shifting. Reports from late December indicate Jordanian and European diplomats discussing potential future collaboration with the new Syrian government, which now largely comprises rebel factions. The Kingdom of Jordan is among the nations concerned about stability and security post-Assad and is advocating for an inclusive government to avoid renewed civil conflict.
The involvement of international players is notable as well. Countries like Turkey have begun re-engaging diplomatically with Syria, underscoring the broader Arab world's fluctuated relationships post-Assad. Turkey’s re-establishment of ties and re-opening of its embassy signals potential normalization efforts amid the volatile situation. Meanwhile, France and the UK have also made overtures to the new powers to explore future diplomatic engagements.
Despite these developments, the situation remains fraught with uncertainty. The continued categorization of HTS as terrorist raises questions about any future governance structure and potential legitimacy on the international stage. Diplomats and analysts voice concerns over how these factions, with their inherent fractures and extremist pasts, will navigate the governing terrain.
On the humanitarian front, the need for aid is urgent, with millions of Syrians displaced and facing dire conditions. Pedersen, during his discussions, reiterated, “We must expedite humanitarian assistance for the population and all refugees who wish to return.” His emphasis on avoiding vengeance highlights hopes for stability and recovery over retaliation which could ignite fresh cycles of violence.
Israel continues to navigate its path carefully, considering its actions impact regional dynamics. Netanyahu’s statements manifest strong convictions about the Golan’s future, yet the realities on the ground necessitate strategic restraint. His government’s focus will likely remain on leveraging its position without provoking broader conflicts.
With shifts occurring rapidly, the developments on the ground necessitate vigilant observation from the international community, who are equally attempting to recalibrate their responses. The future of Syria hangs precariously, caught between the remnants of its tumultuous past and the uncertain promises of its future under new leadership.
