The future of the beloved NCIS franchise is increasingly uncertain as the flagship show enters its 22nd season, raising questions about how much longer it can remain relevant amid deteriorated ratings and recent network decisions. Once considered an institution of American television, NCIS is now contending not just with the usual ups and downs of long-running shows but also competition from its own spinoffs.
Currently, NCIS sits as the third-longest-running scripted, live-action TV series, trailing only behind NBC’s Law & Order series. With its roots established as far back as the early 2000s, the show has become synonymous with the procedural genre. Nevertheless, it’s hard to ignore the signs indicating it could face cancellation after more than two decades of investigation, intrigue, and drama.
According to reports, the viewership numbers have taken a significant hit this season, with episode ratings dipping below 5 million viewers for the first time. For example, episode six of season 22, titled "Knight & Day," fetched just 4.92 million viewers, mirroring the numbers from “The Trouble with Hal” earlier this season, which had similarly low viewer engagement. More alarming was episode four, "Sticks & Stones," which garnered only 4.76 million viewers, constituting some of the weakest ratings since the show’s inception.
These numbers are particularly concerning when compared to NCIS: Hawai'i, whose cancellation earlier this year set off alarm bells within network circles. CBS cited lackluster viewership and high production costs relative to viewer engagement as reasons for the spinoff’s termination; this has inevitably raised worries about the flagship show.
While NCIS has experienced cast changes — most memorably with the departure of Mark Harmon, who played Leroy Jethro Gibbs — the show has introduced new dynamics and characters such as Alden Parker, played by Gary Cole. Parker’s character faced personal turmoil this season with disturbing hallucinations of Lily, leading to speculation among fans. NCIS showrunner Steven D. Binder has teased audiences with the promise of significant revelations about Lily’s identity, sparking intense online discussions. Binder confirmed, "If it’s a theory, it’s probably wrong," hinting at twists yet to come.
Fans are all too aware of the precarious nature of network television. While NCIS has historically performed well above its procedural competitors, the past couple of seasons have ebbed and flowed with viewership, indicating potential concerns about the show's long-term viability. Following the NCIS: Hawai'i precedent, the network’s willingness to cut ties with even the most established series raises the stakes for the NCIS franchise as it moves forward.
This season, the NCIS team has tackled weighty story arcs, including covert operations and personal dramas. Despite the drop-off, there’s also been speculation surrounding major plotlines, including potential deaths among favorite characters—an often controversial maneuver intended to heighten drama yet also risking alienation of loyal fans.
The upcoming spinoff, NCIS: Origins, set to air next year, dives deep, exploring Gibbs' earlier years within the agency. This reflects the franchise's initiative to maintain relevance by branching out to new narratives but also indicates the network’s strategy to salvage the brand even if the flagship show falters.
Likewise, NCIS: Sydney aims to broaden its global footprint, being the first international offshoot of the franchise. These moves signify CBS’s ambition to rejuvenate the franchise, capitalize on existing fan loyalty, and cater to diverse storylines.
The future is still rife with possibilities as NCIS continues compelling storytelling. Yet the narrative is changing: The return of Michael Weatherly and Cote de Pablo's characters from the earlier seasons sure will whet appetites, but it raises questions about whether nostalgia can compensate for declining viewership. Can audience engagement sustain the NCIS narrative when viewers are faced with such drastic changes?
After 22 years of solving crimes connected to the Navy and Marine Corps—and with agents like McGee, Torres, Jessica Knight, and others leading the charge—the series remains active yet vulnerable.
Meanwhile, viewers are becoming more vocal about their desires for character development and narrative depth, even as they cheer on the procedural elements of the show. It seems scripts are getting bolder, with character arcs intertwining personal and professional lives more than ever: Torres is hiding a secret romance, and Parker’s arc delving deep due to his traumatic visions of Lily signifies more than just episodic conflict.
Outside of NCIS, the franchise is still alive with the stories yet to be uncovered, raising hopes among diehard fans. Interactive discussions on fan forums have examined possible connections between character histories, with theories swirling about characters like Mike Franks and his alleged past with one of his on-screen wives. Each new rumor feeds curiosity just as ratings feed the possibility of cancellation.
It’s not just about numbers; it’s about heart, ingenuity, and the connection viewers feel with the agents who navigate the treacherous waters of crime. The questions of who will stay, who will go, and what new layers will be added to the NCIS lore resonate strongly with fans.
NCIS has defied logic, rising and falling with changing tides. But as it stands, the horizon looks increasingly cloudy. Still, with other projects slated to expand the universe, such as NCIS: Tony & Ziva, hope floats for loyal fans. Will nostalgia bring viewers back to watch these new stories if the mothership faces cancellation? The discussion around this iconic franchise remains as engaging as ever.