Calls for drastic reform of Ireland's housing strategy have intensified following the release of a new report warning of insufficient housing production over the next few years. According to construction consultants Mitchell McDermott, the government is likely to build fewer homes than the 33,000 units reached last year, projecting just 32,000 units for 2025 and indicating stagnation for the period thereafter.
The findings come on the heels of official statistics from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which revealed only about 30,000 homes were completed last year, substantially below the government's often-repeated target of 40,000. The CSO data, alongside the Mitchell McDermott report, raises concerns about fulfilling the ambitious goal of constructing 300,000 new homes by 2030, with experts diagnosing key issues within the government's approach.
Paul Mitchell, co-founder and director at Mitchell McDermott, expressed grave concerns about the housing delivery situation. "The government has little chance of achieving its target of building 300,000 new homes by 2030 without drastic measures," he told Newstalk Breakfast. His report indicated projections for planning permissions would only allow for 35,000 homes to be built this year, down from 41,000 previously, marking one of the lowest figures seen over the past six years.
Mitchell emphasized the significant drop-off in apartment developments, which fell to about 9,000 last year from 12,000, with expectations this number could dip even lower to between 7,000 and 8,000 for the coming year. He attributed part of the housing shortfall to hostile perceptions surrounding investment funds, which are often disparaged as "vulture funds". "We need international capital to return to fund our build-to-rent schemes," he noted, highlighting the adverse effects of increased interest rates on the attractiveness of Irish investments for overseas funds.
Critics from opposition parties were quick to respond to the bleak outlook. Sinn Féin's housing spokesperson, Eoin Ó Broin, declared, "The government’s housing plan is failing as without radical changes, new home completions will stagnate through 2025 and 2026." He called for the new Minister for Housing, James Browne, to accept the urgent need for reform and to implement the Housing Commission's recommendations for a 'radical reset of housing policy.'
Pressure mounted against Browne with concerns raised about the increased reliance on the private market for housing solutions. Richard Boyd Barrett from People Before Profit warned, "The fundamental flaw is the almost total reliance on the private market for the provision of new housing... The insufficient homes being built are unaffordable for most people." This criticism reflects concerns not just about quantity, but also the quality and affordability of housing options available to Irish citizens.
The report's suggestions about the rental cap regime have added to the discussion. Mitchell argued for adjustments to the current restrictions, advocating for caps to apply to individual tenancies rather than entire buildings, to make Ireland more appealing to global investments. He also pointed out planning challenges, noting only 40 percent of applications for planning permission result in tangible building projects.
This uncertainty extends to applications for new housing builds, where Mitchell's analysis showed significant barriers exist. "Our data reveals almost 42,000 units were refused and 27,000 subjected to judicial reviews," he said. With planning permissions granted last year standing at 35,000—substantially below required levels—the challenge of meeting future housing needs appears overwhelming.
Mitchell reiterated the need for systemic changes to make meeting housing targets feasible. "If we want to achieve the target of 50,000 units per year, we must submit applications for 125,000 units annually," he cautioned. Prioritizing the facilitation of relevant international investments and removing obstacles salvaged through planning processes will be key to turning the tide, he stated.
With housing continuing to be one of the most pressing issues confronting the Irish government, calls for action are reverberated louder. While the opposition urges reform and reinvestment, rising house prices and steep rental costs amplify the urgency of the situation.
The debate highlights the delicate balance between preserving necessary housing regulations and making Ireland desirable for investment. The upcoming decisions made by the new Minister could shape not only the governmental response but also the immediate future of housing availability across the nation.
Indeed, significant changes are required. Without immediate corrective action, the projections of stagnated housing supply risk exacerbation of Ireland's already significant housing crisis.