Iraq has launched its first national census in nearly four decades, representing a significant step toward modernizing data collection and planning strategies within the country. This long-awaited count commenced on November 20, 2024, and is seen as instrumental for shaping Iraq's future socio-economic framework. With a country deeply scarred by years of conflict and political instability, the census aims to address pressing demographic data needs and the allocation of national resources.
The counting process is particularly sensitive and contentious, as its outcome is expected to greatly influence the distribution of resources, budget allocations, and overall development strategies. Minority groups have expressed fears about the potential impact of the census on their political influence and economic rights, especially within Iraq's complicated sectarian power-sharing system.
Areas like Kirkuk, Diyala, and Mosul pose unique challenges for the census due to the disputed control between Iraq’s central government based in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government. Ali Arian Saleh, the executive director of the census at the Ministry of Planning, stated, "Agreements on how to conduct the count in these contentious areas were reached following discussions among Iraq’s prime minister, president, and Kurdish officials." This collaborative effort is meant to provide fair representation during the census.
Iraq’s last nationwide census was conducted back in 1987, with another insufficiently executed one occurring in 1997 which excluded the Kurdish region altogether. Planning Minister Mohammed Tamim highlighted the new census as “essential for charting Iraq’s development” and indicated it will serve as a stabilizing message to the international community.
Employing advanced technological methods, the current census seeks to deliver detailed insights about the country's demographic, social, and economic landscapes. A substantial workforce of around 120,000 census workers is tasked with surveying households across the nation, with expectations to cover approximately 160 residences each over the two-day counting period.
To facilitate this enormous undertaking, Iraq’s Interior Ministry has announced the imposition of a nationwide curfew during the census days. This curfew restricts the movement of citizens, vehicles, and trains between cities, rural areas, and districts, only allowing exceptions for humanitarian needs. On the ground, Baghdad's streets were observed to be largely deserted initially, but many engaged with census workers, some even sharing tea and conversations.
The census adopts the "de jure" counting method, meaning individuals are documented based on their current residence rather than their original homes. This adjustment intends to recognize internally displaced persons as part of the communities they currently inhabit rather than where they were originally from. Conversely, individuals living abroad or forcibly displaced to other countries are not counted.
Saleh estimates Iraq's population at approximately 44.5 million, emphasizing the Kurdish region’s current budget share—12%—is grounded on the assumption of 6 million residents. This census is positioned to enlighten the true demographic makeup of Iraq and clarify the count of public employees based within the region.
Iraqi Federal Court has mandated the exclusion of questions relating to ethnicity and sectarian affiliation, directing focus solely on broad religious classifications such as Muslim and Christian. Saleh explained, "This tactic aims to mitigate potential tensions and assures the census functions are developmental rather than divisive." Observers from international organizations will monitor the census' implementation, aiming to uphold the validity and accuracy of the data produced.
Experts are weighing the potential political and economic ramifications stemming from the census data. Hogr Chato, director of the Public Aid Organization based out of Irbil, warned, "While some leaders may aim to downplay the census's significance, its findings will undeniably reshape political thought and decision-making moving forward." He affirmed the fairness of allocating budgets relative to population counts, noting the heightened needs of war-affected regions or more densely populated areas.
Prior to the census, there were concerted community-wide campaigns urging participation. Many community leaders across Iraq encouraged citizens to fulfill their civic duty. For example, Imam Abdul Wahhab al-Samarrai from Baghdad's Adhamiyah district called on residents to cooperate, emphasizing its importance for ensuring justice for future generations.
Overall, Iraq’s undertaking of its first national census post-dictatorship signifies not only data collection efforts but also reflects the broader aspirations for progress and stability within the nation's socio-political framework. The outcomes of this monumental task may very well chart the course for Iraq's development for years to come.
