Political instability continues to shake Iran, raising significant concerns about the future of the regime, particularly as the country faces economic turmoil alongside foreign threats. The Iranian leadership stands at its most vulnerable point since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, with internal dissent and external pressures complicate its grip on power. Experts warn of mounting societal unrest, fueled by chronic gas shortages and widespread protests, as the regime attempts to retain control amid intensifying scrutiny from both the from foreign adversaries and its own citizens.
Key factors contributing to Iran's precarious situation include the revival of the United States' maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic, led by the incoming Biden administration, and internal challenges stemming from poor economic management and public dissatisfaction. According to Lisa Daftari, editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, the gas shortage exposes the regime's vulnerabilities on multiple fronts. "This gas shortage inside Iran is highly significant... we see consistent erosion of the regime's influence," she told Fox News.
The internal situation escalated during the past few years, with outbreaks of protests leading to violent crackdowns. Significant protests erupted following the 2019 gas price increase, resulting in the deaths of at least 106 individuals. This turmoil reemerged with the public outcry over the death of Mahsa Amini, who was killed by the morality police for not adhering to strict dress codes, igniting nationwide calls for major reforms and even regime change.
Recognizing the looming threat posed by potential civil unrest, Iran's judiciary head, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, recently ordered measures to prevent unrest relating to worsening energy shortages. His initiative highlights the authorities' awareness of the precarious state of stability within the Islamic Republic.
Alongside the internal threats, Iran criticizes the shifting regional dynamics, wherein its alliances appear fractured due to military advances from adversaries such as Israel and the macroeconomic pressures exerted by sanctions. An analysis presented by JNS noted the substantial political ramifications of the Israeli campaign against Iran's military infrastructure. The Israeli military actions against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas extend to airstrikes targeting locations within Iran itself.
Trump's prior administration's maximum pressure strategy formulated strong economic sanctions against Tehran, aimed at deterring its nuclear ambitions. The Iranian rial has lost over 10% of its value since Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency again, creating fresh hurdles for Iran already struggling with inflation and widespread resource mismanagement. With the rial's value collapsing, observers argue the prospects for Iran appear increasingly grim.
Economically, the Islamic Republic struggles to overcome the repercussions of years of heavy investments directed toward maintaining foreign proxies and military commitments, leading to neglect within its oil and natural gas sectors. Matthew Levitt, counter-terrorism expert for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted the extent of Hezbollah's financial dependency on Iran, speculating it receives around $700 million to $1 billion per year to continue its operations. This diversion of resources has left Iran's domestic energy situation fragile—and the current severe weather conditions exacerbate the fallout.
Iran’s energy crisis, rooted not only within its resource management failures but also compounded by persistent international sanctions, drives home the need for significant domestic reform, with critics asking whether the current regime is effectively representing its citizens' interests. Janatan Sayeh, research analyst with the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasizes this point: “Iran is currently at its weakest point since the 1979 Islamic Revolution... It’s vulnerable both internally and externally.”
Such vulnerabilities extend to the military sphere as well: as alliances crumble and Iran's proxies suffer from losses, its deterrent capabilities diminish. Bashar Assad's regime, previously propped up by Iran as part of its strategic alignment, recently fell to opposing forces—casting uncertainty over Iran's regional ambitions and control.
Experts recommending renewed sanctions combined with targeted military actions argue such efforts could lay the groundwork for the eventual fall of the Islamic Republic. Pressure from abroad could serve to catalyze public dissent, particularly if activists feel encouraged by successes elsewhere or perceive the regime as increasingly incapable of securing national interests.
Majid Rafizadeh, political scientist and expert on U.S. foreign policy, articulated the dire situation facing Iran's leadership, asserting, “The fall of the Islamic regime in Iran would be transformative for Israel and the region.” Reformists within Iran express hopes for the future, envisioning the end of the current regime, which has historically supported anti-Western sentiments and militant agendas, as opening the door to potential stability and improved diplomatic relations.
If this dramatic shift occurs, vast changes could reshape the regional dynamic, potentially reducing tensions and fostering cooperation—effectively turning Iran from its current position as the principal state-sponsor of terrorism back toward engagement with the broader international community. Hence, Tehran's increasingly unstable environment presents momentous challenges and opportunities, not only for the Iranian people but for the insight it provides about the region's geopolitical balance.
