Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi recently made headlines with his visit to Iraq, marking his first trip abroad since his inauguration. This visit is being closely observed as it is expected to impact the course of relations not only between Iran and Iraq but also throughout the region as tensions remain high.
Raisi's visit came at a time when Iraq is seeking to stabilize its own governance and strengthen its ties with neighboring countries, especially after facing challenges from various militant groups. The Iranian President's trip can be seen as a show of solidarity and support for Iraq as it continues to navigate its position amid external pressures and internal conflicts.
During the visit, which took place on March 25, 2024, Raisi met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and other high-ranking officials to discuss various bilateral issues, particularly economic cooperation and security. The Iranian president emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and peace within the region, stating, "Iran considers Iraq's security its own security." This sentiment is reflective of Tehran's longstanding view of its influence over its neighbor, which has been historically intertwined.
The discussions during Raisi's visit also highlighted trade relations, with both nations expressing mutual interest in enhancing economic connectivity. Iraq has been heavily reliant on Iranian goods and energy supplies, and officials from both sides reiterated their commitment to economic partnerships, which are seen as key to revitalizing Iraq's economic recovery post-conflict.
Iran’s influence has been growing in Iraq, especially since the U.S. invasion in 2003, which dismantled Saddam Hussein's regime. This power shift has allowed Iran to establish various economic and political ties within Iraq, leading to concerns from the United States and neighboring Gulf nations about Iran's intentions and long-term goals.
Meanwhile, Al-Sudani's government is attempting to balance these influences from both Iran and the U.S. He has publicly called for the withdrawal of remaining U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, signaling his administration's desire to assert sovereignty and reduce foreign military presence. This request aligns with feelings among some Iraqi elites who seek to diminish U.S. influence.
Many experts believe Raisi’s visit serves both parties well: it provides support to Iraq’s government as it seeks to maintain order, and it helps Iran solidify its relationship with Baghdad as neighboring countries are urged to work collectively for regional stability. Yet, there remains skepticism about whether these discussions can effectively address the underlying issues faced by both nations.
There are also talks surrounding the shared security concerns over groups such as ISIS, which remains active albeit diminished. Both leaders agreed on the need for continued cooperation to eliminate any remnants of extremist groups threatening the region.
Despite these discussions, the specter of unrest persists. Armed groups, some backed by Iran, have been involved in violent confrontations across Iraq. This has raised alarms from local politicians worried about the potential for internal conflict due to the influence of these militias.
Raisi's visit also plays out against the backdrop of broader regional dynamics, particularly relations with Gulf countries and issues concerning the U.S. Its involvement complicates the picture; Washington continues to have significant leverage over Iraq and could impact its relationship with Tehran.
Political analysts suggest this trip could influence Iraq's future policy direction, especially its stance on Iranian alignment. Observers are largely focused on whether Iraq can effectively manage its relationships with both Iran and the U.S. without alienation or conflict. The balancing act will require deft diplomacy, with Al-Sudani under pressure to provide tangible results from talks with both sides.
Back at home, many citizens welcome Raisi's visit as it could lead to improved public services and living standards through expanded economic initiatives. Trade advantages and cross-border collaboration have the potential to alleviate some financial woes Iraq faces.
Although there are still skeptics questioning the longevity of peace measures agreed upon, the Iranian President's first official trip signifies Tehran’s commitment to its regional allies and the pursuit of stability through cooperative governance. How this will shake out politically for Iraq remains to be seen, as the region watches closely.
Going forward, it seems prudent for Iraq to tread carefully, weighing its relations with both the U.S. and Iran as it seeks to carve out its future. The coming weeks and months will reveal whether Raisi’s visit translates to substantial changes on the ground.
