The shifting sands of Middle Eastern politics have rarely felt as volatile as they do in the late summer of 2025. In the wake of a devastating war in Gaza, a stalled peace process, and a brutal civil conflict in Sudan, the region is witnessing a dramatic realignment of alliances and a resurgence of old rivalries—many of them shaped by the actions and ambitions of outside powers, most notably the United States and Iran.
According to analysis published by Mohammad Abu-Rumman, the U.S. administration under Donald Trump has, as of August 31, 2025, "abandoned political rationality and fully aligned with the far-right agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government." Instead of acting as a stabilizing force or setting boundaries for Israeli policies, Washington is now seen as following "reckless Israeli policies that threaten regional stability." This marks a stark departure from previous decades, when the U.S. sought to balance its support for Israel with a broader vision of regional peace.
The Abraham Accords, once hailed as a breakthrough for regional integration and normalization between Israel and several Arab states, now appear to be at a deadlock. The immediate causes? Israel’s war in Gaza and the apparent erasure of hopes for a two-state solution in the West Bank. Several regional states are reassessing their positions as they witness what Abu-Rumman calls "the new aggressive face of Israel and Netanyahu’s boastful reliance on military superiority at the expense of Palestinians and the region as a whole."
Why has Washington, whose interests in the Middle East include "safeguarding Israel’s security within a stable regional order, ensuring the steady flow of oil, and preventing rival powers—chief among them China—from filling the regional vacuum," allowed itself to be so closely tied to Israeli policy? Abu-Rumman argues that the answer lies not in classic Realpolitik but in the dynamics of American domestic politics. Trump’s rise to power was "fueled by the evangelical base that framed unconditional support for Israel as a religious conviction, while the pro-Israel lobby deepened its influence in Washington." The result, he says, is a U.S. president "encircled by a wall of narrow ideas, a prisoner of Israel’s far-right vision, unable to perceive any rational alternatives."
This alignment has consequences far beyond Washington. The U.S.'s image in the Middle East has shifted dramatically. Once perceived (however imperfectly) as a potential mediator, America is now seen by many as a "direct adversary to the peoples of the region." Abu-Rumman warns that "millions of young Arabs who witness this blatant bias grow increasingly convinced that there can be no justice under American dominance." This, in turn, "opens the door to new cycles of violence and instability, undermining the very foundations that Washington claims it seeks to uphold."
Even Israel, for all its short-term military gains, is not immune from the fallout. The Israeli thinker Yuval Noah Harari has warned that rebuilding Israel as a state "built on force, displacement, and domination may bring temporary military or economic gains, but it inflicts profound spiritual and moral damage on Judaism itself—a kind of historical catastrophe." Harari's caution is clear: "A state that becomes a symbol of exclusion and hegemony, rather than coexistence, plants seeds of rejection worldwide that will inevitably grow and turn against it."
Meanwhile, as the U.S. and Israel draw closer, another regional power is working to reshape the landscape from a different angle. Iran, still smarting from what it perceives as a humiliating defeat at the hands of the U.S. and Israel in June 2025, is actively seeking new proxies and footholds. According to American Thinker, Iran's traditional networks—particularly Hezbollah and the Syrian regime—have been weakened. Only the Yemeni Houthis remain a viable Iranian proxy. But Iran is nothing if not adaptable. Its focus has now shifted to Sudan, where a brutal civil war has created fertile ground for external intervention.
Sudan, under its military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, restored relations with Iran in 2023 after an eight-year diplomatic rupture. This rapprochement is widely seen as part of Iran's broader campaign to regain a foothold on the Red Sea and counter its regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Sudan's 530-mile coastline is of immense strategic value. Should Iran succeed in establishing a proxy there, it could threaten Israel’s navy and trade routes, locking the Red Sea on both sides—especially with the Houthis controlling the southeastern shore.
Iran has increased its military and economic involvement in Sudan's civil war, supplying the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) with military equipment, including Mohajer-6 drones, since late 2023. The conflict itself has been devastating: tens of thousands have been killed, with some estimates placing the death toll as high as 150,000, and more than fourteen million people have been displaced, according to U.S. envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello. Yet, as American Thinker notes, there has been "an absence of any protests on U.S. campuses over the butchery in Sudan."
Ironically, Sudan was poised to join the 2020 Abraham Accords initiated by President Trump. In January 2021, Sudan signed the Abraham Accords Declaration, normalizing relations with Israel. However, a full bilateral agreement was delayed by political instability and remains unratified. In February 2023, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with al-Burhan to finalize the text for a formal peace agreement, but the signing was contingent on the formation of a civilian government—a development still on hold due to ongoing civil war.
Iran’s growing influence in Sudan has set off alarm bells in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Israel, which has previously conducted air strikes in Sudan (in 2009 and 2012) to prevent the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hamas, is expected to respond forcefully if similar threats reemerge. Israeli officials argue that "simply fighting another Iranian proxy is insufficient," and that Israel must directly confront Iran as "the head of the snake," as it did this past June.
The United States and Arab states share concerns about Iranian destabilization and the security of the Red Sea. American and European officials have charged that "external actors like Iran are pouring fuel on the fire." The possibility of Sudan becoming Iran’s next proxy is seen as a dangerous escalation—one that could further undermine regional stability and threaten the interests of multiple powers, not just Israel.
For Jordan and the broader Arab world, these developments are deeply troubling. As Abu-Rumman writes, "The region cannot be stabilized on the ruins of Palestinian cities or the bodies of their people. The anger accumulating in the consciousness of a new Arab generation will not fade; it will inevitably erupt, and when it does, it will threaten everyone."
In the end, the Middle East stands at a crossroads. The choices made by Washington, Tehran, and regional leaders in the coming months will shape not only their own futures, but the stability of the entire region. The stakes could hardly be higher.
