As the NCAA March Madness tournament approaches, an intriguing matchup looms between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Lipscomb Bisons, set to take place on March 21, 2025, at 1:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Iowa State enters this first-round contest as the number 3 seed and a significant favorite, with a point spread of -14.5. However, recent performances have left fans questioning the Cyclones' true capabilities, especially with the absence of key player Keshon Gilbert.
Iowa State’s season has been a rollercoaster, with a recent record of 2-2 leading up to the tournament. The team traditionally excels with a dynamic offensive and defensive strategy, ranking ninth nationwide in forcing turnovers, but they've struggled in their last few games. On average, they have scored 77.4 points in their previous 10 outings, which is lower than their overall season average of 80.4 points per game.
Leading the charge for Iowa State is senior guard Curtis Jones, who has averaged an impressive 17.1 points per game while shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc. Alongside him, junior forward Joshua Jefferson also plays a significant role with averages of 13 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game. Yet, the key absence of Keshon Gilbert could present challenges for the Cyclones, as they will need to adjust their game plan without their primary ball handler.
In stark contrast, the Lipscomb Bisons enter this matchup with unmatched momentum, boasting a record of 11 wins in their last 12 games, including winning their conference tournament decisively. Lipscomb has shown a remarkable offensive capability, averaging 81.5 points per game over their last 10 contests, well above their season average of 79.3 points. Jacob Ognacevic has been a standout for the Bisons, securing an impressive 20.1 points per game and earning the ASUN Player of the Year title while recording 10 double-doubles this season.
The Bisons exhibit a top-20 turnover rate of 14.4%, while also ranking third nationally in the fewest fouls per game at 12.6. These numbers indicate Lipscomb's disciplined style of play, which will be crucial against Iowa State's aggressive ball pressure. The team has benefited from the sharp shooting of Will Pruitt, who averages 13.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and has recorded a triple-double this season, giving them a well-rounded offensive threat alongside Ognacevic.
When considering the odds, analysts have predicted a high-scoring battle with an over/under set at 142.5 points for the game. Despite Iowa State being heavily favored with a moneyline of -1333 compared to Lipscomb's +792, there are concerns regarding how the Cyclones' recent struggles against formidable competition could affect the outcome. As per CBS Sports, Iowa State is predicted to score 85 points while Lipscomb is expected to net 71 points, reflecting the balanced views on the matchup.
Experts provide insights into potential betting strategies. Given Iowa State's strong defense and style of play, one recommended bet is for Joshua Jefferson to record over 3.5 assists, capitalizing on his increased usage with Gilbert sidelined. On the other hand, Lipscomb's challenge will be maintaining their offensive rhythm against the high-ball pressure of Iowa State.
The narrative suggests the matchup favors Iowa State, provided they can leverage their rebounding and defensive prowess. With a +4.2 rebound margin in their last five games and with the Cyclones harassing opponents to the tune of a 23.1% turnover rate during their conference tournament run, Lipscomb may need to find creative ways to exploit Iowa State's defense. They rank poorly in defensive rebounding percentage, which could further tilt things in Iowa State's favor.
The upcoming game promises not just an exciting competition but potentially dramatic twists based on injuries and team dynamics, providing ample opportunities for surprises. Both teams exhibit strengths that could influence the final score, making the game one to watch in the early rounds of March Madness. Final predictions align towards Iowa State covering the spread, but not without recognizing Lipscomb’s explosive potential if they can control the tempo and scoring.
Ultimately, this clash of styles—combining the Cyclones' aggressive approach against the disciplined play of the Bisons—will make for a captivating opening round. Fans can catch all the action live on TNT.
