The NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament kicks off a thrilling match as the No. 6 seed Iowa Hawkeyes face off against the No. 11 seed Murray State Racers on Saturday, March 22, 2025. This opening-round clash is set to begin at 12 p.m. ET at Lloyd Noble Center and will be a must-watch on ESPN.
After a tight battle, Iowa recently fell to Ohio State by a single point, concluding with a score of 60-59. Sydney Affolter stood out in the loss with 14 points to lead her team. On the other hand, Murray State arrives with momentum, having won their last game against Belmont with an impressive score of 83-62; Katelyn Young dominated that encounter with an eye-popping 34 points to her name.
This match is pivotal, not only due to the stakes of the tournament but also because both teams present contrasting playing styles. Iowa has a scoring differential of +293, averaging 74.3 points per game, ranking 49th overall in college basketball. They allow an average of 65.1 points per game, landing them at 195th in the same rankings. Their three-point shooting stands at an average of 7.3 made per game, placing them 75th in the nation.
In terms of home and away dynamics, Iowa performs better on its home court, averaging 77.6 points compared to 72.9 when playing away. Over their last ten games, they have managed to score an average of 72.1 points, slightly below their season average. This slight dip may influence their performance against the high-scoring Murray State Racers.
For Murray State, the story is different. They lead the NCAA in scoring with an astounding 87.7 points per game and allow 72.1 points (328th nationally). With a remarkable scoring differential of +501, they outscore their opponents by an average of 15.6 points per game. Their sharp shooting from beyond the arc averages out at 10.2 three-pointers per game, marking them as the third-best nationally in this statistic.
The Racers find themselves at an advantage at home, averaging 91.1 points, a stark contrast to their 84.4 average on the road. Their recent form is impressive, showing an even higher margin of victory in their last ten games with 88.7 points scored.
As both teams prepare for the highly anticipated matchup, key players for Iowa include Lucy Olsen, who scores an average of 18 points per game along with 4.9 assists, and Hannah Stuelke, who adds another 12.9 points and 7.9 rebounds. Sydney Affolter, who recently had a standout performance, will also be critical along with Addison O’Grady and Taylor McCabe, rounding out a formidable starting five.
On the other side, Katelyn Young leads the Racers with an average of 22.5 points per game, supported by Halli Poock and Haven Ford, who contribute 17.1 and 15.2 points respectively. This dynamic lineup gives Murray State the offensive firepower to potentially overwhelm opponents.
The matchup will not just be a test of strength and skills but also a battle of strategy as both head coaches aim to outwit each other on game day. Observers are eager to see how Iowa's defense holds up against Murray State's lethal offense.
As the excitement builds towards the game tip-off, one of the key aspects to watch will be the foul situation among key players. This could play a pivotal role in the match outcome. For instance, Iowa’s Gus Martin Heiden, who has had an impact across the board, already faced foul trouble, which could significantly affect the team’s strategy.
Over the first and second quarters, Iowa managed to hold up a solid lead, entering the second quarter at 40-30 thanks to contributions from both starters and bench players. As the teams continued to trade baskets, Iowa’s depth will likely be tested as foul trouble could limit their star players, necessitating key contributions from lesser-known athletes.
Predictors are leaning toward Iowa having the edge due to their strong finish to the season, even considering their recent heartbreaker loss. Predictions also suggest that Iowa could fend off Murray State's threats successfully, leading to a projected scoreline of 82-68 in favor of the Hawkeyes, according to basketball analysts.
This NCAA Tournament first-round matchup promises to be exciting, pitting a well-rounded Iowa squad against a Murray State team that thrives on offensive power. As fans gear up for the game, the air is thick with anticipation and uncertainty, and only time will tell how the story will unfold.
