The Estlink-2 undersea power cable, which links Finland and Estonia, faced unexpected damage on December 25, 2023, prompting immediate investigations by Finnish authorities. The failure, reported at 10:26 GMT, significantly reduced the cable's capacity, creating concerns about possible sabotage or technical malfunction.
According to Fingrid, Finland's transmission system operator, the power capacity plummeted from 1,016 megawatts (MW) to just 358 MW. At the time of the disconnection, which occurred when electricity was flowing from Finland to Estonia at 658 MW, there was no immediate impact on electricity supplies for either nation, as both operators confirmed sufficient reserves for their energy needs.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo underscored the seriousness of the situation, stating, "Authorities are investigating whether a foreign vessel may have been involved." This marks yet another alarm for security concerning undersea infrastructure across the Baltic region, which has seen several incidents of compromised cables and pipelines over the past year.
The Eagle S, a tanker flying the Cook Islands flag, is under scrutiny due to its presence at the time of the cable's failure. The vessel reportedly slowed its speed as it traversed the area around the Estlink-2 cable when the power outage occurred. Managed by operators of the so-called "shadow fleet" — ships registered under flags of convenience often used to transport Russian oil — suspicions have arisen due to the geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian activity near Baltic infrastructures.
Finnish authorities are focused on the coordination between various agencies, including the police and the Border Guard Service, as they seek to clarify whether the Eagle S had any role in damaging the cable. The potential involvement of other ships, such as the container ship Xin Xin Tian 2, which also transited the area around the same time, is part of the inquiry.
Already plagued by previous issues, the Estlink-2 cable, which became operational in 2014 and spans 170 kilometers, has faced shutdowns due to various technical challenges this year. Notably, earlier incidents had involved near-operational outages caused by faults linked to the complex underwater terrain it traverses.
The December investigation adds to the backdrop of heightened vigilance among Baltic nations where recent history has been littered with incidents involving undersea infrastructure. Reports from late 2023 highlighted concerns following the severing of data cables between Finland and Germany and Lithuania and Sweden, with allegations of sabotage surfacing but lacking conclusive evidence.
Orpo stated the responsibility to safeguard energy systems is compounded by external threats, especially against the backdrop of recent geopolitical conditions. Finland's border guards are adamant about maintaining operational integrity, urging continued cooperation with Estonian counterparts to maintain safety amid heightened tensions.
Long-term solutions are under consideration, including discussions about the proposed Estlink-3 project, which aims to bolster electricity connectivity between Finland and Estonia. While the current outage may cause short-term inconveniences, authorities are maintaining electricity reliability and exploring the technical features of new connections to resist potential threats.
Experts have raised valid questions about the robustness of undersea cables, particularly with increasing incidents involving foreign vessels and interruptions. The notable failure of the EastLink 2 cable on Christmas Day is representative of broader concerns over maritime safety across the Baltic Sea.
While the possibility of sabotage remains on the table, authorities stress the need to investigate all angles—whether it is due to mechanical issues or intentional actions. Finland's ability to respond with resilience amid these challenges will significantly impact its energy security moving forward.
Fingrid's operators are expected to provide more details about the investigation as it develops. The outcome of this inquiry will play a pivotal role not only for the electricity links between Finland and Estonia but also for the future of cross-border energy cooperation amid growing concerns about cybersecurity and physical safety of undersea infrastructure—as the stakes have never been higher.
