The NBA is witnessing an electrifying race for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award as the 2024-25 season unfolds, with fans and analysts passionately debating who should take home the coveted trophy. At the forefront of this contention are Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) of the Oklahoma City Thunder. As of March 20, 2025, both players have dazzled on the court, but it's their contrasting performances and team dynamics that have set the stage for an intense showdown.
Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP, is averaging an impressive 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game, hinting at his unique capability to dominate contests. His shooting accuracy reflects his well-rounded game—Jokic boasts a shooting percentage of 57.5 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from beyond the arc. Furthermore, he showcases versatility with a true shooting percentage of 65.9, illustrating a balanced offensive threat. For context, Jokic's performance places him among the top three in the league for points, rebounds, and assists, solidifying his status as a standout player.
However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is making a compelling case for himself, leading the league in scoring with an average of 33.0 points per game. His contributions don't stop there; he also averages 5.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game while maintaining impressive shooting statistics of 52.6 percent from the field and 90.1 percent from the free-throw line. SGA not only leads in scoring but also anchors a dominant Thunder team that stands as the best in the Western Conference with a record of 57-12, which is 12.5 games better than the Nuggets.
At the heart of the MVP race lies the contrasting narratives of both players. While Jokic is lauded for his sheer skill and historical significance—he has the potential to become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double in a season—his team's performance is a point of contention. The Nuggets are currently 44-26, sitting fourth in the Western Conference, a significant gap behind the Thunder.
Conversely, Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder not only outperform the Nuggets but excel on both sides of the court, embedding team success deeply into the MVP equation. With recent stats indicating that the Thunder are plus-16.6 per 100 possessions when SGA is on the floor, while the Nuggets are plus-9.9 with Jokic, it's clear that SGA's presence directly correlates with the team's success.
Amidst discussions of who deserves the MVP, the impact of team records cannot be ignored. Fans and experts often argue that the best player on the best team deserves special recognition, further complicating Jokic’s case this year. The historical trend shows that MVPs are frequently awarded to the star leading the highest-performing team, which strongly favors Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting markets reflect this sentiment. According to FanDuel's implied odds, they suggest that SGA has the edge, driving the narrative that he is the frontrunner for the award. Observers note that potential voter fatigue might have weighed against Jokic, as he is the defending MVP and has won three of the last four awards. In comparing past MVP races, notable instances of voter fatigue affecting candidates like Michael Jordan and LeBron James encourage the idea that voters may resist giving Jokic another award, complicating his quest for a fourth MVP.
Yet, interestingly, recent analysis reveals that previous MVP winners, especially defending champions, could actually benefit from their prior accomplishments, contrary to the fatigue narrative. Analyses tracking MVP candidates since the 1979-80 season indicate that previous wins actually enhance the likelihood of winning again.
Moreover, Jokic, with his standout season metrics—a 63.8% team winning percentage and a minimal year-over-year decline—suggests he remains in strong contention despite team performance. His multifaceted gameplay—averaging nearly triple-doubles and impacting the game on a large scale—does buffer his case against SGA's in an MVP discussion.
As the NBA season approaches the playoffs, the dialogue surrounding the MVP award persists with emphasis on not only statistics but also narratives that surround these elite athletes. The dual narrative of iconic performance and team success ultimately shapes fan perception and voter opinion, creating an atmosphere of excitement and intrigue.
In the end, whether Nikola Jokic retains his title or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claims his first MVP, what remains clear is the historic talent both players bring to the court. To ignore either player’s influence—be it through individual stats or team contributions—would overlook the incredible narratives driving the 2024-25 MVP race. As fans await the MVP decision, one thing is certain: the basketball world has been graced with competitive spirits and extraordinary talent, heralding a thrilling end to the season.
