The highly anticipated Madrid Derby is set to take place on Saturday, February 8, 2025, when Real Madrid welcomes Atlético Madrid to the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium for the 23rd round of La Liga. This showdown is always one of the most awaited matches of the season, and the upcoming clash promises to be intense and thrilling.
Real Madrid is currently leading the Spanish championship with 49 points from 22 matches. The team has exhibited impressive scoring prowess, netting 50 goals and conceding 21. At home, Los Blancos have accumulated 27 points from 10 games, ranking second on this front. Over the last five matches, Real Madrid has claimed four victories—against Salzburg, Valladolid, Brest, and Leganés—along with one loss to Barcelona. Real boasts a powerful attack and strong midfield, establishing themselves as favorites in every match.
On the other side, Atlético Madrid sits second on the table with 48 points from 22 matches. Their defense has been remarkable, allowing only 14 goals, which is among the best records in the league. Away from home, Atlético has gained 18 points from 10 games, placing them fourth similarly. They have also secured four wins—against Bayer, Salzburg, Mallorca, and Getafe—in their last five matches, alongside one draw against Villarreal. Known for their organized play, Atlético is adept at grinding out results.
Bookmakers currently favor Real Madrid for the upcoming match, particularly considering their excellent form and home advantage. Recent head-to-head encounters show Atlético has won two of the last five meetings, with Real claiming one victory and two ending in draws, pointing to evenly matched competition. Notably, Real Madrid has achieved four wins over their last five home games, making them considerable threats at the Bernabéu, especially since they haven’t lost at home since April 2023, with the exception of matches against Barcelona.
With Atlético Madrid enjoying strong results away from home, winning four of their last five away matches, the derby is set up for compelling competition. According to betting expert assessments, the AI prediction leans toward Real Madrid winning with a -1 handicap and total goals exceeding three. Star analyst Alexander Mostovoy noted, "This derby promises to be intense as the teams are neck and neck but with differing recent performances."
Both clubs will face challenges due to injuries affecting their key line-ups. For Real Madrid, important players such as David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappe are sidelined. Meanwhile, Atlético will miss Roben Le Norman due to yellow card accumulation.
Interest is high for betting trends. Real Madrid has scored at least two goals in three of their last home league matches; yet their matches against Atlético have historically had lower scoring, with less than 2.5 goals being recorded recently. Despite defensive strains, Rodrigo has emerged as one of Real's key figures, scoring two goals within three matches.
Conversely, Atlético's attacking unit, led by Antoine Griezmann—having scored in four of the last five encounters—demonstrates approachability similar to previous games against strong defenses. The team's confidence will be reinforced after winning against Mallorca and Huesca recently, marking significant milestones for coach Diego Simeone.
Experts predict this match to remain tightly contested, with opportunities for attacking display from both sides. The combination of strong offenses and defensive vulnerabilities adds excitement as both teams strive for victory. Amid strong predictions of significant fanfare and anticipation, betting odds reflect possible outcomes—including 3:1 as the last head-to-head result—and the probability of Atlético struggling to score before halftime.
Sources inform expectations about total fouls exceeding 26.5 due to rigorous aggression from both teams, emphasizing how the match will entail fierce tackles and battles for possession. Such trends correspond with past encounters where high foul counts were recorded, aligning with inherent aggression.