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31 January 2025

Intel Reports Q4 2024 Earnings Amid Mixed Outlook

Despite beating revenue expectations, Intel's guidance for Q1 2025 raises concerns among investors.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing mixed performance amid challenging market conditions. While the semiconductor giant reported revenue of $14.26 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, the year-on-year decline of 7% raised concerns among investors.

The latest earnings report announced on January 30, 2025, marks the first since the departure of CEO Pat Gelsinger. The results fell within the sequential timeline, yet the guidance for the upcoming quarter proved more troubling, resulting in after-hours stock fluctuations.

Despite beating Wall Street estimates for revenue, Intel’s forecast for the first quarter of 2025 is less than optimistic. The interim co-CEOs, Michelle Johnston Holthaus and David Zinsner, outlined guidance projecting revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, which is below the consensus of $12.86 billion.

Highlighting the latest quarter figures, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.13, surpassing expectations of $0.12, but Intel still faced net losses totaling $126 million or $0.03 per share—this contrasts sharply with the $2.67 billion profit reported during the same period last year.

Johnston Holthaus expressed cautious optimism, stating, "The fourth quarter was a positive step forward as we delivered revenue, gross margin, and EPS above our guidance." This statement suggests the company is making strides, yet the overall macroeconomic environment and inventory adjustments challenge sustainable recovery.

Examining individual segments, Intel’s Client Computing Group proved to be the largest revenue producer, generating $8.02 billion yet reflecting a drop of 9% from the previous year. The Data Center and Artificial Intelligence segment saw revenues decline to $3.39 billion, aligning with investor expectations but indicating the need for strategic recalibrations.

Interim CFO David Zinsner explained the company’s strategic adjustments amid the challenging environment, alluding to seasonal sales fluctuations, economic conditions, and client inventory management. A significant takeaway from the earnings call was the acknowledgment of clients "digesting inventory," emphasizing the changing demand dynamics amid economic uncertainties.

Despite this setback, there were positive trends within specific units. The Network and Edge segment reported revenue growth, reaching $1.62 billion—a notable increase by 10% compared to the prior year's figures, indicating resilience amid broader challenges.

The sentiment around Intel's performance remains cautious, as stakeholders and analysts assess the competitive market pressures and potential tariffs. "While difficult to quantify, we suspect a portion of Q4 revenue upside was due to customers hedging against potential tariffs," Zinsner noted.

Looking forward, Intel's management stressed the importance of revamping their product offerings and reducing operational costs as pivotal strategies to mitigate future risks and cater to market demands effectively. Johnston Holthaus commented on this strategy, saying, "Our renewed focus on strengthening and simplifying our product portfolio is positioning us to serve the needs of our customers." This focus on portfolio enhancement could be instrumental as Intel navigates forward.

With the projected timeline for volume chip production based on new technology set for the latter half of 2025, confidence persists, albeit carefully, among investors and analysts. The management aims to successfully integrate feedback from the industry, modifying its initiative around the Falcon Shores AI processor for optimized market alignment.

Stock performance this week shows shareholders cautiously optimistic, with share prices incrementally rising post-report amid newfound faith surrounding Intel’s operational adjustments. Yet with the firm projected to operate near breakeven for the next quarter, it remains to be seen how the market will react to the earnings adjustments and future guidance.