India's growth as one of the key players on the climate change stage is becoming increasingly evident, especially as new reports reveal the alarming rise of its contribution to global carbon emissions. With global carbon emissions on the upswing, India’s share is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2024, as highlighted by findings presented at the recent COP29 climate conference held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The report unveiled there noted global carbon emissions from fossil fuels could surge to 37.4 billion tonnes, marking a 0.8% increase compared to the previous year. This dire trend underlines various challenges nations face as they grapple with meeting climate goals amid rising emissions.
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign of peak fossil fuel burning,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter's Global Systems Institute, emphasizing the need for urgent action.
For perspective, India's greenhouse gas emissions rose by 6.1% last year, contributing 8% to the global total, albeit it has historically accounted for just 3% of these emissions. Despite this growth, India's per capita emissions remain comparatively low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent—far less than the global average of 6.6 tons.
While India's emissions are growing, those from larger contributors like the United States and the European Union are projected to decline, with the U.S. seeing a decrease of about 0.6% and the EU around 3.8%. This stark difference raises questions about equity and responsibility among nations, especially as developed countries push for emissions reductions from India and other developing nations.
The report titled ‘Global Carbon Budget 2024’ presented forecasts detailing how emissions from major sources like coal, oil, and gas are likely to increase globally, with coal emissions potentially spiking by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%. Presently, coal contributes the largest share of emissions at 41%, followed by oil at 32% and gas at 21%.
Despite the gloom, there are some signs of progress. The report indicates notable reductions from land-use changes, like deforestation, which have shrunk by about 20% over the last decade. This is partly due to the offset caused by reforestation efforts, which are helping to mitigate the emissions from deforestation. Still, the global outlook remains challenging, particularly as international aviation and shipping emissions are forecasted to rise by 7.8%, sitting at 3% of global emissions.
Wildfire activity, particularly drastic events like those seen during the 2023 wildfire season in Canada, has also played a role, releasing substantial amounts of CO2 and contributing to the expected rise.
Notably, the scientists involved emphasized the importance of advancing technologies to remove CO2. Unfortunately, current technology-based measures are negligible, accounting only for one-millionth of emissions from fossil fuels, indicating the need for scaling up these advancements.
Despite rising emissions, there is hope. Observations show positive behavior shifts with growing uptake of renewables and electric vehicles displacing fossil fuels, alongside improvements noted in deforestation emissions. Reporting on these advancements, Dr. Glen Peters from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research remarked on the sense of progress seen on the country level, adding, "There are many signs of positive progress at the country level and a sense of peak fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive."
All this paints a complex picture of India’s current environmental standing. Though the country is experiencing rising emissions, there’s recognition of its developing status, along with the global call for equity as richer nations enjoy higher emissions for longer periods without facing the same scrutiny.
India's situation calls for careful navigation between development needs and climate commitments. This balancing act will determine its role and responsibilities as it continues to grow on the world stage. So, where does India go from here? The upcoming years will be pivotal as it seeks to ramp up climate action and manage its fossil fuel dependency—all eyes will be on India as it strives to align its growth with sustainability, challenging the narrative around developing nations and climate leadership.
