The year 2024 has proven to be remarkable and surprising for Indian politics, especially for the world’s largest democracy. For the first time since the abrogation of Article 370, the Assembly elections were successfully held in Jammu and Kashmir. Alongside this, the states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand also took part in elections, marking significant shifts within the political arena.
The key highlight of this election year was the outcome of the general elections, which not only reshaped Indian politics but also pushed political analysts to reassess the changing dynamics of electoral behavior. The results brought unexpected consequences, challenging the assumptions previously held about voting trends.
When it came to the Lok Sabha polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had initially set ambitious goals, hoping to secure over 400 seats with the mantra: ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ (this time, 400+ seats for the NDA). Yet, reality checked those aspirations as the ruling party was restricted to 240 seats. Despite this, the NDA, with the support of its allies, formed the government for the third time, totaling 293 seats.
The election results came as pleasant news for the INDIA bloc, particularly for the Congress party, as it earned the chance to appoint its Leader of Opposition (LoP) for the first time in ten years. The outcome was astonishing, contrary to all exit polls, which had projected the BJP winning decisively, reiterative of the unpredictible nature of elections.
It's noteworthy to mention this is the first time Prime Minister Narendra Modi is overseeing governance without a clear majority. This arrangement complicates the BJP's execution of its key agendas, particularly concerning the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, as the party now primarily relies on alliances with partners such as the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
Turning to Haryana, the assembly election aftermath highlighted one of the most significant aspects of the Indian political fabric for 2024. Riding on the wave of farmers’ protests and the backlash against the Agniveer scheme, the Congress aimed for triumph. Yet, the BJP made strategic leadership changes and crafted adept caste calculations, succeeding not just to secure the majority but also exceeding their previous record, clinching 48 seats compared to their 47 in 2014.
This outcome dashed Congress’s hopes for resurgence, leading to demoralization among its ranks, especially outside of Haryana, with Maharashtra polled next.
The outcome reverberated through Maharashtra as well, where the political tussle between the BJP and the Congress transformed significantly. A viral video showcasing Devendra Fadnavis reciting poetic lines reignited public attention as he assumed the role of Chief Minister for the third time. This year's contest was complex, incorporating not just BJP and Congress contenders but also internal rivalries within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena factions.
Here, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena outperformed expectations by garnering 57 assembly seats, leaving Uddhav Thackeray’s faction considerably behind with just 20 seats. The results also revealed Ajit Pawar’s NCP emerged on top with 41 seats, leaving Sharad Pawar’s faction only 10 within the assembly.
Meanwhile, the story of Hemant Soren’s political tenure took center stage after his return from jail, successfully guiding his alliance to victory with 56 seats out of 81. His claims of politically motivated arrests during his campaign rallies struck chords with voters. There was also significant distress for Odisha, where, after 24 years of uninterrupted governance, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) lost its legislative majority, failing to secure any Lok Sabha seats.
Many anticipated the emergence of the BJP as the new ruling party, leading to Mohan Charan Majhi stepping up as the state’s inaugural BJP chief minister, defining Odisha's future political trend.
Shifting focus to South India, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) leader N Chandrababu Naidu resumed his position as Andhra Pradesh’s chief minister after successfully winning 135 out of 175 assembly seats. This landslide victory starkly contrasted with YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party, which dwindled down to merely 10 seats. The TDP’s alliance with the BJP-led NDA indicates substantial political recalibrations across the region.
Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu’s political legacy evolved with Udhayanidhi Stalin’s appointment as Deputy Chief Minister, the son of current Chief Minister MK Stalin. This event rekindled conversations around dynastic politics, drawing comparisons to previous leadership transitions and tapping sentiments around political lineage.
Critics condemned this familial ascendance within politics, whereas supporters emphasized it as part of the natural progression indicative of the region’s political culture. Precedent exists, with only one past occurrence (2009) where both father and son held similar power positions within the Tamil Nadu assembly.
Experts speculate future changes as MK Stalin’s administration strengthens, possibly leading to Udhayanidhi's swift elevation as Chief Minister if the DMK secures the upcoming assembly elections.
The multifaceted political shifts observed this year reveal not only the inherent unpredictability of elections but also signify deep-rooted changes within the Indian political domain. The year 2024 will likely remain pivotal as political observers track the resilient responses from parties across the spectrum to meet the challenges and expectations of their constituents.
