Indian equities are expected to remain range-bound on Monday, May 5, 2025, as global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions weigh heavily on investor sentiment. As of 9:02 AM, the Gifty Nifty indicated a flat opening, down 0.07%, which reflects the cautious mood among traders.
In the United States, stock futures were down, with Dow Jones futures slipping 0.5% to 41,111. This follows a strong performance on Wall Street last Friday, where the S&P 500 marked its longest winning streak in over two decades, closing 1.47% higher at 5,686.68. The US dollar also edged lower in early trade, with the dollar index down 0.2% at 99.857, as market participants await concrete developments in the ongoing US-China trade negotiations.
Despite easing recession fears after a robust March jobs report, which has reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, the dollar struggled to maintain momentum. The euro gained 0.2%, reaching $1.1324, recovering from last week’s low of $1.1266. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slipped 0.2% to 144.63, easing from a high of 145.91 on Friday.
In the oil markets, producers have surprised analysts by reversing earlier output cuts, now set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. This marks the second consecutive month of higher supply and raises concerns about a potential supply glut amid fragile global demand growth. Market sentiment has also been rattled by renewed trade tensions, as the latest tariff measures from the US administration reignite fears of a global economic slowdown.
Today is a significant day for Indian markets, as a broad mix of companies from various sectors are set to release their fourth-quarter and full-year FY24-25 earnings. Noteworthy names on the docket include Mahindra & Mahindra, Coforge, Indian Hotels Company, and Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing. Investors will also keep a close watch on quarterly results from CCL Products, Computer Age Management Services (CAMS), and Capri Global Capital, making it a data-heavy session for earnings-driven trades.
Ircon International has secured a ₹458.14 crore contract for civil construction works at the Tato-I Hydro Electric Project in Arunachal Pradesh. Meanwhile, AU Small Finance Bank is in focus as TRUE NORTH FUND V LLP, Indium IV (Mauritius) Holdings, and Silver Leaf Oak (Mauritius) plan to offload shares worth around ₹600 crore via block deals.
Azad Engineering has signed a long-term supply agreement with GE Steam Power GmbH (GE Vernova) for manufacturing advanced airfoils for nuclear, thermal, and industrial power applications. In contrast, State Bank of India (SBI) reported a 9.9% year-on-year decline in Q4FY25 net profit at ₹18,643 crore, primarily impacted by higher provisions and the absence of a one-time gain. However, on a sequential basis, profit rose by 10.4%, with full-year FY25 net profit standing at a record ₹70,901 crore, an increase of 16.08% year-on-year.
By 11 AM, the BSE Sensex had risen by 373.47 points, or 0.46%, reaching 80,875.46, while the Nifty50 was up 124.95 points, or 0.51%, at 24,471.65. The market's upward momentum is being driven by a combination of positive cues from the global markets, including a drop in crude oil prices below the $60 mark and sustained buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) over the last 12 sessions.
The Manoj Jewellers IPO opened for subscription today, intending to raise ₹16.20 crore through a fresh issue of 3 million equity shares, with 50% reserved for retail investors. Meanwhile, the share allotment for the Arunaya Organics IPO is expected to be finalized today, following a modest oversubscription of approximately 2.53 times.
Despite the overall positive market sentiment, the Nifty is currently trading in a narrow consolidation band between 24,500 and 24,000 levels. Technical analysts caution that the index’s failure to sustain above 24,500 indicates potential selling pressure from supply zones. A decisive close above this level could open further upside toward 24,800 and eventually the psychological 25,000 mark. Conversely, falling below 24,200 may increase the chances of hitting the 200-day simple moving average around 24,050.
In the banking sector, Bajaj Broking expects the Nifty Bank to consolidate within the range of 54,000-56,000, working off the overbought conditions created by the recent sharp rally. The Bank Nifty has been trading in a boxed zone between these levels, with analysts suggesting that a breakout could trigger further upward movement.
In corporate news, shares of Gravita India Ltd. surged as much as 10% after the company reported a significant increase in its fourth-quarter revenue and profit. Conversely, shares of Central Depository Services (India) Ltd. declined over 5% in early trade following disappointing quarterly metrics.
Overall, while the Indian stock market is experiencing a positive start to the week, investors remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed global cues. The focus will be on upcoming earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this week, which could significantly impact market direction.
