On April 8, 2025, the Indian stock market showed signs of recovery after a steep decline the previous day, driven primarily by global market reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against China. The Sensex rebounded, gaining 1.62% to reach 74,320.85 points, while the Nifty 50 increased by 1.66%, trading at 22,530.50 points. This followed a significant drop on April 7, when the Sensex and Nifty fell nearly 3%, marking their worst trading session in the last ten months.
As of 6:48 AM, GIFT Nifty futures indicated a gap-up start, rising 378 points to 22,642 compared to the previous close of 22,263. The recovery in Asian markets, with the Nikkei rising over 6% and the ASX 200 up 1%, contributed to the optimistic sentiment in Indian markets.
However, the backdrop remains concerning. The previous day's turmoil resulted in the S&P 500 index experiencing a massive 10.5% drop, losing about $5 trillion in market value, its largest two-day loss since March 2020. The fallout from Trump's tariff announcements has created a ripple effect, leading to fears of a global recession. Notably, Hong Kong's stock market plunged over 13% on April 7, its steepest one-day decline since 1997.
In the context of these developments, analysts are closely monitoring ongoing corporate earnings, including those from Transformers and Rectifiers (India) and TeleCanor Global, which are set to kick off the March quarter results season. The net profit of 19 listed banks is projected to decline by 4% year-on-year due to pressure on net interest margins, reflecting the broader economic challenges.
On the commodities front, oil prices are fluctuating significantly. Goldman Sachs recently warned that Brent crude could fall below $40 a barrel under extreme conditions, with their base-case outlook predicting Brent at $55 by December 2025. This volatility in oil prices is compounded by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, further impacting market sentiment.
Despite the overall negative sentiment, some stocks are attracting attention. Titan Company reported a robust 25% growth in its standalone business for the March 2025 quarter, with its jewellery segment seeing a 24% year-on-year increase, largely driven by rising gold prices. The company expanded its retail network, adding 72 new stores, bringing its total to 3,312.
Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) also made headlines by securing a ₹2,210 crore contract with the Indian Air Force for electronic warfare systems, leading to a 3% rise in its stock price. Meanwhile, Mahindra and Mahindra announced the formation of a new subsidiary, Mahindra Advanced Technologies, aimed at future technologies and innovation.
In the IPO market, Infonative Solutions and Spinaroo Commercial are set to list on the bourses today, while Tata Capital and Imagine Marketing have submitted their draft red herring prospectuses to SEBI.
Market analysts, including Gaurav Bhandari, CEO at Monarch Networth Capital Ltd, believe that the U.S. markets may be nearing the end of a bottoming process, predicting a potential surge in the S&P with targets of 6300–6700 over the next six to eight months. However, caution remains as the market continues to be influenced by Trump's tariff policies and their implications for global trade.
On the technical front, key levels for the Nifty are being closely watched, with support at 21,960 and resistance at 22,800. Analysts suggest that a decisive move above the latter could signal a continuation of the recent pullback rally, while failure to hold above the support level may lead to further declines.
As the day unfolds, investors are advised to remain vigilant, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further market volatility. The RBI's upcoming monetary policy committee meeting is also expected to be a focal point, with expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut to counteract the economic impact of the recent tariff shocks.
In summary, while the Indian stock market is showing signs of recovery, the broader economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. Investors are advised to stay informed and exercise caution as they navigate these turbulent waters.
