In a dramatic escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a critical water-sharing agreement that has governed the use of rivers between the two nations for over six decades. This decision follows a deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people. The attack has been attributed to an armed group known as The Resistance Front (TRF), which seeks independence for Kashmir and has been linked to Pakistan by Indian authorities.
In response to the attack, India announced on April 23, 2025, that it would downgrade diplomatic ties with Pakistan, including suspending its participation in the IWT. This treaty, signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, divides the Indus River and its tributaries between the two countries, allocating the three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—to India, while Pakistan retains rights to the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that the IWT would be held in abeyance until Pakistan ceases its support for cross-border terrorism. Misri emphasized that the Cabinet Committee on Security discussed the attack and the implications for the treaty during a special briefing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi further asserted that India would identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers.
The IWT has historically been a resilient agreement, surviving multiple conflicts and tensions between the two nations. However, the recent attack has shaken India’s confidence in the treaty's viability. In the past, similar threats to suspend the treaty were made but never acted upon, making this moment particularly significant.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif responded vehemently to India's announcement, stating that any disruption to Pakistan's water supply would be regarded as an "act of war." Sharif convened a meeting of the National Security Committee, which concluded that Pakistan would hold all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, in abeyance until India refrains from its actions.
Following India's announcement, Pakistan has also taken retaliatory measures. The country has closed its land border with India and canceled all visas issued under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) to Indian nationals. Furthermore, Pakistan declared Indian military advisers in Islamabad as personae non gratae and has closed its airspace to Indian airlines.
Experts have raised concerns about the implications of suspending the IWT for Pakistan, which relies heavily on the western rivers for its agriculture and energy needs. Agriculture constitutes about 24 percent of Pakistan's GDP and employs approximately 37.4 percent of the population. The potential for reduced water flow could severely impact food production and exacerbate existing water shortages.
Hassaan F. Khan, an assistant professor at Tufts University, noted that while India lacks the infrastructure to immediately divert significant water flows from the Indus, the suspension of the treaty creates uncertainty for Pakistan's agricultural system. The treaty obliges India to share crucial information regarding water release from its dams, and its suspension could hinder Pakistan's ability to manage its water resources effectively.
Legal experts argue that India's unilateral suspension of the treaty lacks legal standing, as there is no provision in the IWT for such action. Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a Pakistani lawyer, stated that the treaty can only be modified through mutual agreement. This raises questions about the potential for international legal recourse, with some analysts suggesting that Pakistan might pursue the matter in international forums like the International Court of Justice.
The political ramifications of this situation are significant. Anti-India sentiment has surged in Pakistan, with political leaders framing India's actions as a declaration of war. Haris Dar, leader of an Islamist political party, characterized the situation as "India's water terrorism," reflecting the heightened emotions surrounding this critical issue.
The IWT's suspension marks a departure from the historical precedent of cooperation over water resources, which has been viewed as a potential template for resolving international water disputes. As both nations navigate this precarious moment, the impact on regional stability and agricultural productivity will be closely monitored.
The Indus Waters Treaty was born out of necessity following the partition of British India in 1947, when water sharing became a contentious issue between the newly formed states of India and Pakistan. Despite the treaty's resilience over the years, the current crisis underscores the fragility of water diplomacy in a region marked by longstanding political and territorial disputes.
In summary, the recent attack in Kashmir has triggered a significant diplomatic crisis, with both India and Pakistan taking aggressive measures that could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and water security. As tensions rise, the international community watches closely, aware that the stakes have never been higher in the Indus basin.
