India has initiated a significant restriction on water supply to Pakistan, implementing measures that have raised tensions between the two nations. According to the Hindustan Times, this move follows the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals, primarily tourists. In response to the attack, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical agreement governing the sharing of river waters between the two countries.
On May 3, 2025, India began cutting off the flow of the Chenab River at the Baglihar dam, significantly impacting water supply downstream to Pakistan. An official from the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation confirmed, "We have closed the gates of the Baglihar hydel power project. We had done de-silting of the reservoir, and it has to be refilled. The process started on Saturday." This action has reportedly reduced the downstream flow to Pakistan by up to 90%.
Further measures are planned at the Kishanganga dam on the Jhelum River, which is also expected to halt water flow to Pakistan as India seeks to exert control over the region's water resources. The Indian government's decision comes amid heightened military tensions, with both nations conducting military operations. The Indian Navy is currently engaged in maneuvers, while Pakistan has recently tested its Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile.
The backdrop of these developments is a long-standing dispute over water resources, particularly the Indus River system, which is vital for Pakistan's agriculture and energy sectors. Following the Pahalgam attack, India accused Pakistan of involvement, a claim that Islamabad has vehemently denied, calling for an independent investigation into the incident.
Pakistan's response to India's water restrictions has been swift and severe. Officials in Islamabad have stated that any attempt to stop water supplies from the Indus River would be considered an "act of war." This rhetoric underscores the seriousness with which Pakistan views India's actions, with both countries already having closed their airspace to each other's airlines.
In addition to the immediate water supply issues, both nations have engaged in military skirmishes along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, further complicating the already fraught relationship. Reports of cross-border shelling have emerged, indicating that tensions are not limited to diplomatic channels but extend into military confrontations.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960, has significant implications for both countries. Under the terms of the treaty, Pakistan has historically had control over the Indus River and its tributaries, while India retains the right to utilize these waters for irrigation and other needs upstream. However, with India halting the treaty's implementation, the balance of power in water resource management has shifted dramatically.
India's actions are part of a broader strategy to enhance its water management capabilities, especially in the context of ongoing hydropower projects in the region. The Indian government has made substantial progress on four major hydropower projects on the Chenab River and its tributaries, which are expected to be commissioned between 2027 and 2028. These projects include Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Ratle (850 MW), with a combined capacity of over 3,000 MW.
As India continues to assert its control over water resources, the potential for conflict remains high. The ongoing military activities and diplomatic breakdown suggest that both nations are preparing for a more confrontational stance. The Indian government has dispatched nearly 50 engineers from the NHPC to oversee operations in Jammu and Kashmir, signaling its commitment to maintaining its strategic advantage in the region.
In light of these developments, experts warn that the situation could escalate further if diplomatic efforts are not made to resolve the underlying disputes. The water crisis, exacerbated by military tensions, poses a significant threat to regional stability and could have dire consequences for both nations.
As the situation unfolds, the international community is closely monitoring the events, hoping for a peaceful resolution to a conflict that has persisted for decades. The implications of India's water restrictions extend beyond immediate resource management, potentially impacting millions of lives and the economic stability of both India and Pakistan.
In summary, the recent actions taken by India to restrict water flow to Pakistan have intensified an already volatile relationship. With military operations ongoing and diplomatic ties severed, the future remains uncertain for both nations, as they navigate the complex interplay of water resources, security, and national interests.
