Impeachment Trial Sparks Stock Surge And Betting Frenzy

As the impeachment trial date for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol approaches, the stock market is buzzing with activity surrounding political theme stocks, particularly those linked to Yoon's rival, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party. On April 3, 2025, the Korea Exchange (KRX) reported significant fluctuations in stock prices, with some shares seeing remarkable gains as investors speculated on the outcome of the impending trial.

According to KRX data, the stock price of Orient Precision, associated with Lee Jae-myung, surged for two consecutive trading days, closing at 15,890 won on April 2, 2025, marking a staggering increase of approximately 58% from its previous closing price of 10,060 won on March 31, 2025. Similarly, Dongshin Construction's stock price jumped from 47,000 won to a peak of 75,400 won during trading on April 2, while Aetech's shares also experienced a spike, trading as high as 43,500 won from a previous price of 28,650 won.

The surge in these stocks is attributed to growing expectations that the political uncertainty surrounding Yoon's presidency may soon be resolved, with many anticipating that the impeachment vote will be approved. However, experts in the financial investment sector are urging caution. They note that political theme stocks often experience a decline once the associated issue has been resolved. For instance, the stock price of the Trump Media & Technology Group, established by former U.S. President Donald Trump, saw a dramatic rise prior to the 2024 election, only to plummet after his defeat, closing at 18.760 dollars on April 2, 2025.

As political dynamics evolve, market analysts are closely monitoring the volatility of these stocks. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, "Volatility in political theme stocks is increasing as the impeachment trial approaches," emphasizing the need for investors to exercise caution due to the rapid fluctuations in stock prices.

In a parallel development, the betting landscape surrounding Yoon's impeachment has also attracted significant attention. An account named 'LadyGunHee' on an overseas betting platform known as the P site has reportedly engaged in transactions totaling over 3.1 million dollars (approximately 4.54 billion won) across three bets related to Yoon's presidency. This account began participating in impeachment-related betting about a month prior to the trial date.

LadyGunHee placed substantial bets on the outcome of Yoon's impeachment, particularly focusing on the proposition that he would not be ousted before April 2025. As the trial date approached, the account profited approximately 1.01 million dollars (around 1.48 billion won) after the impeachment trial date passed without a decision. However, LadyGunHee also placed bets on subsequent propositions, such as whether Yoon would resign before May 2025, incurring significant losses in the process.

In addition to LadyGunHee, there are multiple sub-accounts linked to this betting activity, with substantial amounts wagered on Yoon-related bets. The P site, known for its previous betting activities surrounding global events like the U.S. presidential election and international crises, is drawing scrutiny due to the high stakes involved. As of April 3, 2025, there are several ongoing bets related to Yoon's presidency, including questions about the number of judges who will approve his impeachment and whether he will receive a pardon in 2025.

Despite the allure of betting on political outcomes, experts caution that the legal landscape surrounding online gambling in South Korea is complex. Most online gambling sites, aside from the one operated by the National Sports Promotion Corporation, are deemed illegal in the country. This raises concerns about the potential legal ramifications for domestic residents engaging in overseas betting activities.

In a recent discussion, Kang Shin-up, a lawyer and operator of the fan club for Kim Gun-hee, Yoon's wife, highlighted the predictive nature of the P site compared to traditional opinion polls. He stated that, as of March 21, 2025, the probability of Yoon's impeachment being approved was reported at 27%, while the odds of him remaining in office surged to 77%. However, the announcement of the impeachment trial date has shifted the dynamics, leading to a flurry of bets and speculation on the platform.

As the political landscape in South Korea continues to evolve, both investors and bettors are navigating a tumultuous environment filled with uncertainty. The approaching impeachment trial has created a perfect storm of speculation, with financial markets and betting sites alike responding to the potential outcomes. As the trial unfolds, all eyes will be on the developments surrounding President Yoon Seok-yeol's leadership and the broader implications for South Korea's political future.