Iceland is standing at the crossroads of political evolution as its new coalition government prepares to engage the public on the contentious issue of European Union (EU) membership. The freshly-formed tripartite coalition, led by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, affirmed plans to submit the question of EU accession to voters by 2027, marking a significant shift from Iceland's historically ambivalent stance toward the bloc.
Since its early days, Iceland has been hesitant about joining the EU. The 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent political ramifications of Brexit among EU nations have altered public sentiment. Many Icelanders are now grappling with the notion of integration with the EU, and recent polls suggest rising support for membership. A survey conducted by Maskína showed over 54% of Icelanders are now in favor of EU accession, and 74.2% believe it's important to decide the matter through a referendum.
On December 21, 2023, Frostadóttir was formally invited by President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson to lead the new government, comprising her Social Democratic Alliance, the Reform Party, and the Center Party. This coalition rose to power after the collapse of the previous government, post-elections held due to internal disputes, primarily around human rights and immigration issues.
Leading the charge for Iceland's potential EU membership is Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, the incoming Foreign Minister and head of the Reform Party, known for its pro-EU stance. She emphasized the coalition agreement, stating, "We have agreed to adopt a motion in Parliament declaring we will hold a referendum on pursuing Iceland's EU membership negotiations, and it will take place by 2027."
This historic move marks the first time women leaders have dominated the government’s cabinet. At 36, Frostadóttir will not only be Iceland's youngest Prime Minister but also serve alongside influential women from diverse political backgrounds. The coalition's agenda focuses on economic stability, including reducing inflation and high interest rates, promising stronger fiscal governance.
Frostadóttir articulated the pressing economic goals during her inaugural address: "This new government must confront common challenges. Our first task is to stabilize the economy and lower interest rates through strong fiscal leadership. At the same time, this government will break through the deadlock and work for greater wealth creation within the private sector. Quality of life will improve through unity around these challenges."
The party's rise reflects significant voter concerns over economic issues, such as housing security and poverty reduction—issues considered major concerns during the elections. The Social Democratic Alliance came out with 20.8% support, earning the most seats among the parties within the 63-seated Assembly. Meanwhile, the former ruling Independence Party plummeted to 14 seats, its poorest performance ever, receiving only 19.4% of the votes.
Public sentiment appears to be swinging toward EU membership, underpinned by the sentiment articulated by social scientists like Ragnar Auðun Árnason. He notes the shift arises from factors including national crises and the allure of stability and economic benefits enjoyed by EU member states, which many stats see as advantageous for the Icelandic economy and its citizens' welfare.
Experts aligned with the new government are not only expected to weigh the merits of EU membership but also the potential switch from the króna to the euro as the country's currency. A comprehensive examination of the trade-offs may prove beneficial before the upcoming referendum.
With strong public backing for evaluating membership, alongside the expertise of the new coalition, it is evident Iceland is on the path toward engaging more deeply with European integration. Political stability, coupled with public support for EU membership, could well shape Iceland's future foreign relations and domestic policies.
The stakes are high as Iceland embarks on this defining political chapter, potentially deciding its relationship with Europe for generations to come. Every step taken by this burgeoning coalition will be pivotal, not just for Iceland's economy but also for its standing on the global stage. Will Iceland finally embrace EU membership? The next few years will undoubtedly be telling.