With the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the near horizon, many Americans considering jumping onto the housing market are pressing the pause button. Looking for signals from the political sphere, first-time homebuyers are opting to wait, hoping the election outcome will lead to more favorable housing conditions.
A recent survey by Redfin has highlighted this growing uncertainty, showing nearly 23% of prospective buyers are holding off on their purchase until after the election. This trend reflects the anxiety many feel about housing affordability, which remains one of the top concerns as election day approaches.
For younger buyers, who have been particularly vocal about their financial worries, the housing proposals from major candidates are front and center. Many are closely watching how policies around affordable housing might shift, depending on which candidate gains the upper hand.
Supporters of former President Donald Trump are particularly interested: Nearly 16% express anticipation about how his longstanding focus on deregulation and economic growth might facilitate new housing developments and improve homeownership opportunities. On the flip side, Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered attention for her proposal to offer $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time buyers, capturing the interest of over 26% of respondents. While the idea is intended to alleviate some financial pressure, critics warn it could cost taxpayers approximately $500 billion, which may be unsustainable and fail to address the core issues driving prices up, such as high construction costs.
Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin agent from Fort Lauderdale, notes the hesitation for homebuyers transcends political worries. The anxiety around financial commitments and timing is also contributing to the slowdown. A survey by Veterans United Home Loans echoed this sentiment, finding about 38% of potential homebuyers are hitting the brakes on their searches. For many, it could all boil down to timing—the right moment still eludes many who believe they are still too far from achieving their homeownership dreams.
For the remaining 30% of respondents, their reason for refraining from buying is more financial. Many are still saving up for the down payment, wanting to have more security before making such significant commitments. Others, close to 29%, simply feel the timing doesn’t align with their current family needs. Interest rates remain another steep cliff to navigate; about 18% are holding out, hoping for rate decreases from the Federal Reserve.
The opinions among market experts remain divided on what post-election housing will look like. Real estate industry voice Ryan Serhant recently projected to Fox Business the market will surge back to life come 2025, buoyed by increasing inventory and declining interest rates. Yet, Mark Palim, chief economist at Fannie Mae, exercises caution; he points out the sluggish sales at present even with rates hovering around 6% and the persistent buyer anxiety stemming from the hefty rise in home prices over the past few years.
This ever-shifting narrative of the housing market is largely contingent on which party takes the reins and how their policies evolve from election day onward. The concerns relentless over pocketbooks and housing prices have fueled these discussions, as homeownership remains the bedrock of financial stability for many Americans.
Against the backdrop of political machinations and potential policy shifts, how will affordable housing look for the average American come 2025? The electoral outcomes are more than just political battles; they are catalysts for real estate transformation.
