With the holiday season fast approaching, shoppers across the U.S. are facing another spike at the grocery store, this time centered on the humble egg. A combination of high demand for baking and cooking during this festive time paired with the devastating effects of avian flu has sent egg prices soaring.
According to data from the Consumer Price Index, egg prices shot up more than 30% from last year, largely driven by dwindling supply. An alarming report indicated egg prices were up over 60% compared to just one year prior, reflecting broader supply chain issues exacerbated by bird flu outbreaks across the country.
For those attempting to put together elaborate Thanksgiving dishes, the struggle is especially palpable. "You can't have your holiday baking, your pumpkin pie, your stuffing, without eggs," said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board. She noted how the egg industry's seasonal peak runs through November and December, intensifying the crunch.
The outbreak of avian influenza, which began affecting poultry back in February 2022, has led to the deaths of more than 111 million birds, primarily laying hens. Recent reports pointed out more than 6 million birds have been culled this November alone. This disruption has affected egg production, contributing to heightened prices and insufficient supply.
Setting aside the immediate impacts of inflation on grocery bills, the broader economic picture is equally concerning. The USDA anticipates high prices for eggs could persist well beyond the holiday season, with indications extending to 2025. For consumers and businesses alike, these rising costs have forced many to rethink their purchasing strategies.
Some consumers are frustrated as they’re seeing only select areas of grocery store shelves stocked with eggs – and when they do find them, paying anywhere from $3.37 to upwards of $4.30 per dozen, depending on region and quality. This fluctuation has been particularly hard on restaurants. Kyle Citrano, owner of George's Restaurant and Bar #2, described the challenges facing local businesses. “We’ve seen our prices on eggs fluctuate all the way from around $2.43 to upwards of $4.30 for the year," he said, underlining the volatility.
For smaller establishments like Megg's Cafe, the cost of eggs has seen stark overnight increases, jumping from around $0.19 to $0.35 per egg, which significantly affects menu pricing and profitability.
Beyond the immediate impacts of supply chain disruptions, environmental factors are adding complexity to the industry. Increasingly erratic weather patterns brought about by climate change are disrupting both commercial farming and wild bird patterns, raising questions about new variables and challenges facing egg production. Metz added, "We have birds displaced by hurricanes, by wildfires, and those birds are now circulating where they otherwise might not circulate. That changes the interaction between domesticated and wild birds, which is concerning for avian flu transmission."
While industry leaders scramble to adjust to these market conditions, the long-term future appears equally tumultuous. Experts like Chad Hart, professor and agricultural economist at Iowa State University, stress the importance of monitoring the expected impacts of incoming regulations aimed at transitioning to cage-free egg production. With more states pushing for cage-free requirements, supply allocation becomes more complicated, especially as avian influenza continues to threaten existing flocks.
“Cage-free requirements are set to go live next year in several states including Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan. This means more and more producers are facing the cost of transitioning their flocks to meet these new standards, which puts additional pressure on supply,” Hart said.
Despite the uncertainty looming for traditional producers, some positive trends are appearing on poultry farms. The cost of chicken feed, which typically counts for about 70% of farmers' expenses, has dipped following the severe inflation experienced from 2020 to 2022. This may provide some relief, though farmers still contend with high egg prices and decreased output.
The complicated interplay of these factors has led to soaring egg prices during one of the busiest baking seasons of the year. Shoppers, restaurant owners, and producers alike have their eyes on upcoming market adjustments as they navigate these combined challenges of avian flu and demanding holiday shopping.
While the rising egg prices come during the peak of baking season, they also serve as stark reminders of the fragility of food supply and the interconnectedness of environmental conditions affecting agricultural practices. Many remain hopeful these issues can stabilize, allowing for more accessible prices as consumer demand sustains through the end-of-year festivities.
With Thanksgiving just around the corner, this year's dinner tables will have to accommodate not just turkey and trimmings but also keep close tabs on the rising cost of eggs. Amidst these challenges, the resilience of both businesses and consumers will be tested to meet the demands of Thanksgiving menus across America.
