On March 11, 2025, marking the 14th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake, Hokkaido's disaster management officials have released alarming predictions about potential massive earthquakes along its coasts. They warn of catastrophic consequences should a severe quake strike, anticipating approximately 7,440 deaths and around 15,900 building collapses along the Sea of Japan coast.
The dire forecasts arose from collaborative research undertaken since 2019 by experts from Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Using innovative seabed monitoring techniques and GPS technology, these researchers are observing crustal movements particularly around the Chishima Trench, which is currently under tension from accumulated tectonic stress. According to Fumiyuki Tomita, a researcher, "It is important to enrich preparations under the premise of the risk of massive earthquakes, and we should consult with family and community members to make prior arrangements." This marked urgency emphasizes the threat not only to Hokkaido but the broader Pacific coastal areas.
March 11 also saw somber memorial services taking place throughout Japan, commemoratively recalling the earthquake's devastating impact. A significant event was held at Yatsunoki-Tai Tsunami Disaster Reconstruction Memorial Park located in Shirakawa City, Fukushima Prefecture. Here, about 40 bereaved families gathered to honor 13 individuals lost to landslides during the earthquake, demonstrating the enduring emotional toll. Reiko Shibuya, who lost her husband and father-in-law, shared her lasting pain saying, "Here, years later, my heart still aches every time I come. I think living happily is the best way to honor our loved ones whom we lost."
Meanwhile, across Japan, steps are being taken to mitigate impending risks. For example, Hamana-nakachou, situated along the eastern Hokkaido coast, has constructed artificial high grounds at the cost of 420 million yen—an initiative planned to greatly shorten evacuation times during emergencies. Takahashi Kaito, reporting on the initiatives, noted, "We have constructed artificial high ground to significantly shorten evacuation time," referring to the effectiveness of these measures put in place to safeguard residents from potential tsunami threats.
The possibility of future megaquakes remains serious, as governmental assessments have calculated between 7% to 40% odds of experiencing another magnitude 9 earthquake along the eastern Hokkaido coast within the next three decades. Efforts such as erecting tsunami towers to house over 150 individuals on elevated grounds assure the populations of coastal towns. These towers are strategically located to provide quick access and effective safety against disasters.
Such projections and memorials serve not only to remind the public of past tragedies but also to strengthen community discourse around preparedness and resilience. Tomita continues to advocate for proactive planning, advising citizens to reflect on their own readiness and to formulate actionable steps collaboratively: "We should consult with family and community members to make prior arrangements," he reiterated, emphasizing collective action.
The persistent threat of geological disturbances serves as both caution and call to action for all affected regions. With each anniversary, discussions around infrastructure and safety measures intensify, fuelling efforts to integrate advanced systems and community training against disaster, revolving around education and shared narratives.
Overall, as Japan navigates its path toward disaster readiness, these efforts highlight the importance of building awareness, ensuring supply caches for emergencies, and fostering community solidarity. Each step taken—be it through construction, communal gatherings, or study—is instrumental to mitigate the impending risks posed by nature’s unpredictability.