March Madness is always a thrilling time for college basketball fans, and once again, history has repeated itself with remarkable 12-5 upsets during the 2025 tournament. Two No. 12 seeds, McNeese and Colorado State, achieved stunning victories against their higher-seeded opponents, adding to the lore of this exciting basketball saga. With every passing year, the potential for these upsets captivates spectators and generates fierce debate among analysts and fans alike.
Since the NCAA tournament expanded its field in 1985, No. 12 seeds have consistently defied the odds, with 57 upsets recorded. Heading into the 2025 tournament, the record for lower seeds stood at 55 wins against 101 losses, illustrating a win percentage of approximately 35.26. This season, the upsets were not just hypotheticals; they materialized when McNeese edged past Clemson with a nail-biting score of 69-67 and Colorado State triumphed over Memphis 78-70.
The excitement surrounding the 12 seed—5 seed matchup is rooted in its historical performance. Over the last 40 tournaments, 12 seeds have won at least one first-round game in 34 instances. The only notable exceptions to this trend occurred in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, and 2023. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round, including Murray State, Oregon, and Liberty, proving once again that 12s can be formidable contenders.
Among this year’s highlights were also the previous years where 12 seeds shocked the basketball world. In 2024, Grand Canyon took down Saint Mary's with a score of 75-66, while James Madison defeated Wisconsin 72-61. In both 2022 and 2021, No. 12 seeds managed to eliminate higher seeds: New Mexico State took out UConn 70-63, and Oregon State erased Tennessee 70-56. Even the legendary Ja Morant made headlines in 2019 when he led Murray State past No. 5 Marquette, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history during a dazzling 83-64 win.
The trend continues to fascinate analysts, raising questions about how much more likely a 12-5 upset is compared to a 13-4 upset. Since 1985, there have been 33 times when No. 13 seeds bested No. 4 seeds, showcasing their own potential for surprises. As the data reveals, No. 12 seeds have become an alarming force in the tournament, consistently proving that upsets are part of March Madness.
Meanwhile, the NCAA tournament saw notable performances not just from 12-seed upsets but also from coaching veterans. On March 22, 2025, John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks triumphed over the No. 2 seed St. John's 75-66, sending the famed coach to his 16th Sweet 16. Billy Richmond III led Arkansas with 16 points, while Karter Knox added 15, helping the Razorbacks, seeded 10th, further their impressive journey in the tournament.
This victory also marked a significant achievement for Calipari, who overhauled a struggling Arkansas squad that started the Southeastern Conference (SEC) 0-5 due to early-season injuries. The Razorbacks ended the season with a 22-13 record, showing resilience and determination, despite a challenging beginning. After the game, Calipari commented, “This is as rewarding as a year I’ve had, based on how far we’ve come.”
St. John’s had entered the tournament as the Big East champion and a No. 2 seed but struggled with their shooting, finishing at just 28% from the floor overall during the match. This performance was disappointing for head coach Rick Pitino, who previously had a strong history in Providence, highlighted by his 1987 Final Four run with the Friars. Pitino reflected on the loss, stating, “They outplayed us. They deserve to move on and we don’t.”
The matchup featured an intense battle where Arkansas led by as much as 13 points in the first half and maintained an eight-point lead with just eight minutes left in the game. However, St. John’s made a late push, cutting the lead to 62-60 with just over six minutes remaining. An unfortunate stretch ensued where the Red Storm missed six consecutive three-point attempts and only managed to make one of their last nine shots, sealing their fate and handing Arkansas a spot in the next round.
Next up for the Razorbacks is a clash with the winner of the Texas Tech versus Drake matchup later that night. The excitement continues to build as the tournament progresses and more fans flock to venues across the country, hoping to witness another legendary upset. As teams fight to advance, one thing remains certain: the unpredictability of March Madness keeps fans returning season after season, hungry for extraordinary moments on the hardwood.
