On a humid August morning in West Java, Indonesia’s political future took center stage—not in the halls of parliament, but on the parade grounds of the Army’s Special Forces’ Training and Education Center in Batujajar. The occasion? The Operational Troop Roll Call and Military Honor ceremony, presided over by President Prabowo Subianto on August 10, 2025. Yet it wasn’t the military pageantry that grabbed headlines; rather, it was a fleeting moment between two young politicians—Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY)—that set off a firestorm of speculation about Indonesia’s next presidential race.
As the ceremony’s guests, dressed in military camouflage, awaited the president, a video captured Gibran briskly making his way to the main stage. In his haste, he greeted several officials, including Attorney General ST Burhanuddin and Army Chief of Staff General Maruli Simanjuntak, but conspicuously missed AHY and other ministers such as Bahlil Lahadalia, Muhaimin Iskandar, and Zulkifli Hasan. The moment was brief, but the internet noticed. By August 12, a clip uploaded by Instagram user @wakandafolk had racked up 12,800 likes, and Democratic Party cadre Herzaky Mahendra Putra shared his own take, highlighting AHY’s rapport with other officials and the public.
For the general public, the incident was fuel for rumors of a brewing rivalry between Gibran—the eldest son of former President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo—and AHY, son of former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Both men, now prominent cabinet members under President Prabowo, are seen as potential contenders for Indonesia’s highest office in the 2029 presidential election. The viral video, coupled with their family legacies, seemed to set the stage for a new generation of political competition.
But is it really a conflict? According to political analyst Ray Rangkuti, not quite. Speaking to Indonesia Business Post on August 19, Rangkuti explained, “If we call it a conflict, then clearly it’s not. But if we call it a growing rivalry, that’s what it is—a competition toward 2029.” He described the episode as a “symbolic rivalry,” manifested in public gestures and image-building rather than direct confrontation. “Their domains are very far apart. AHY works directly under the president, and his duties do not intersect with Gibran’s authority,” Rangkuti noted, emphasizing that any real contest between the two remains years away.
Hendri Satrio, another analyst consulted by Indonesia Business Post, echoed this sentiment, calling the speculation around AHY and Gibran’s rivalry a natural part of the political process. “For 2029, political competition is inevitable. If AHY and Gibran eventually choose their own separate paths, that would be normal,” he said. Hendri downplayed the incident’s significance, suggesting it was likely accidental: “Regarding the handshake issue, it really looked unintentional. Gibran may have arrived a bit late and seemed to be in a hurry.” For now, he argued, both men are “under President Prabowo’s command,” making any immediate rivalry less visible.
Still, the context matters. In January 2025, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court issued a landmark ruling removing the presidential threshold requirement for the nomination of president and vice president, as stipulated in the 2017 elections law. This seismic shift means that, for the first time in years, the field for the 2029 presidential race is wide open. AHY and Gibran are just two among dozens of potential candidates, but their high-profile lineage and cabinet roles have made them magnets for public attention. As Herzaky Mahendra Putra, Democratic Party’s Communication and Public Relations Coordinator, posted alongside the viral video, “Coordinating Minister AHY. Loved by the leaders, cherished by the people. Simply work wholeheartedly, in line with the directions of the President, and strive to provide the greatest benefit for the people.”
While the nation speculates about the next generation of leadership, President Prabowo has been focused on a different kind of legacy—one rooted in constitutional fidelity and economic sovereignty. On August 15, 2025, in his state address, Prabowo underscored the enduring importance of Indonesia’s 1945 Constitution. Days later, on August 19, Minister Pratikno reaffirmed this message, stating, “We all know from his many speeches that President Prabowo’s respect for and commitment to the Constitution is clear and unequivocal.” According to Pratikno, this commitment is more than rhetoric; it’s visible in the administration’s policies and its coordination with the House of Representatives.
Pratikno cited the president’s deep study of Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution, which mandates state control over strategic sectors and resources vital to the public interest. “The strength of a nation lies in how it controls and manages its wealth. Therefore, we must have the courage to correct any missteps we have made,” Pratikno quoted the president as saying. This principle has guided the government’s decision to reallocate more than Rp300 trillion from the state budget to productive sectors like food self-sufficiency, community-based schools (Sekolah Rakyat), Garuda Excellence Schools, free health check-ups, and expanded social assistance programs.
“These are not merely programs. They are constitutional mandates—realizations of the ideals of independence: freedom from colonialism, from oppression, and from ignorance,” Pratikno emphasized. President Prabowo, he added, is adamant that Indonesia’s economy must be rooted in the principles of Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution, with a special focus on protecting the vulnerable and resisting the sale of national resources at bargain prices to foreign interests.
The president’s vision is also shaped by a deep reverence for Indonesia’s founding fathers. Prabowo has repeatedly rejected claims that the ideas of Sukarno and Mohammad Hatta are outdated. As Pratikno put it, “President Prabowo believes that such views are misguided. Sukarno, Hatta, and other leaders of the 1945 generation were the architects of Indonesia’s independence and the framers of the Constitution.” For Prabowo, the nation’s compass is the 1945 Constitution, with Pancasila as its guiding star and the people as its greatest source of strength.
As Indonesia looks ahead to 2029, the interplay between generational rivalry and constitutional stewardship will likely define its political landscape. The viral moments and symbolic gestures may capture the public’s imagination, but the substance of governance—rooted in constitutional principles and economic reform—remains at the heart of President Prabowo’s administration. Whether the rivalry between AHY and Gibran turns into genuine political combat or remains a contest of images, the next chapter of Indonesia’s democracy will be shaped by both the ambitions of its rising stars and the enduring legacy of its founding ideals.
The nation, it seems, is at a crossroads—where the echoes of its past meet the uncertainties of its future, and where every handshake, or lack thereof, is watched for signs of what’s to come.
