Vice President Kamala Harris is making strides to regain support among Arab American voters, a demographic pivotal for the Democratic electoral strategy, particularly as the 2024 elections approach. The backdrop of this renewed focus is the increasingly strained relationship many Arab Americans have experienced with the Biden administration since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, 2023.
Just after the Gaza conflict erupted, polling data from the Arab American Institute (AAI) revealed sharp declines in support for President Joe Biden among Arab voters. Initially riding high on their approval, which soared to 59% during the 2020 election, Biden saw this figure plummet to only 17% by late October 2023. This drastic change is partly attributed to his administration’s perceived inadequate response to Palestinian suffering as Israel ramped up military actions following the Hamas attacks.
Recent data has shown promising signs for Harris's campaign, particularly as she took over the presidential ticket for the Democrats. An AAI poll released at the end of September 2024 indicated her support among Arab voters is virtually neck and neck with former President Donald Trump, with 41% leaning toward Harris and 42% favoring Trump. Both candidates are now vying for the pivotal Arab American vote, which could sway the outcome of upcoming elections.
The AAI's polling findings also reveal shifting priorities among Arab voters as issues like the war in Gaza significantly impact their voting decisions. About 81% of respondents express belief the conflict will influence their choice at the polls, with 26% naming it the most important issue. This concern is compounded by overlapping issues such as economic instability and gun violence, which continue to rank as top priorities for voters across various demographics.
While the economic concerns seem to hold universal weight among the electorate, the polarization and apprehensions arising from the Gaza conflict particularly resonate within the Arab American community. Twelve percent of the voters interviewed indicated their current support for third-party candidates complicates the political atmosphere. This fragmentation of votes can be alarming for the Democratic and Republican parties as they strategize how best to galvanize support among various groups.
A notable point made by the AAI is the heightened anxiety surrounding personal safety and discrimination among Arab Americans. Sixty percent reported concerns about their personal safety, reflecting broader societal tensions, with 64% expressing fears of facing discrimination—an increase from previous polling. These sentiments underline the impact political dynamics and social climates have on voter sentiment.
Both Harris and Trump seem to have potential for growth within this voter base. AAI's data indicates significant demands from Arab voters could drive their support back to either candidate. If Harris were to actively advocate for “an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians,” she could reclaim significant portions of the Arab vote—potentially even reversing Biden's losses since November 2020. The polling suggests she could capture one-third of Trump's supporters, along with swaying third-party voters who feel disillusioned.
For Trump, the opportunity lies similarly within diplomatic advocacy related to Israel. If he were to push for policies aimed at halting military actions against Palestinians and protect their welfare, he could see his support rise to 55% among Arab voters. This move could peel away significant support from Harris and even snatch up half of the backing for third-party candidates.
James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, emphasized the unprecedented effect the Gaza conflict has had on voter sentiment among this community, stating, “We have not witnessed anything like the role the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior.” Such remarks highlight how deeply intertwined global events can shape local electoral dynamics.
Even though Arab voters represent only small segments of the voting populace—about 2% and 5% respectively in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan—they can serve as decisive factors during close elections. Biden secured victories in these states by incredibly slim margins in 2020, underscoring the significance of engaging this demographic now more than ever.
The looming election will put the Democratic party's strategies to the test, with Harris likely aiming to solidify her relationship with Arab Americans to bolster the Democratic base’s unity and strength. Amidst increasing scrutiny and the urgent climate of our times, retaining their support could prove pivotal.
