With just one day to go until the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the race for the White House remains incredibly close. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck, leading to what many political analysts are calling one of the most competitive elections in recent history. Both candidates are making aggressive stumps across the nation, focusing on key battleground states where their fortunes could be decided.
The most recent polls reflect the razor-thin margins: each candidate is within just two or three percentage points of one another nationally. Harris tries to maintain the momentum built during her vice presidency, aiming to position herself as the candidate of change, especially after the tumultuous Biden administration. On the other hand, Trump aims to use his previous record and relentless campaigning style to rally his base and expand his appeal.
Experts point out ten reasons why either candidate could emerge victorious. For Trump, there’s the advantage of incumbency—albeit from his previous term. He’s not just campaigning to win back the presidency but also leveraging dissatisfaction with the current administration. Historically, midterm elections have shown voters often penalizing the sitting party during tough economic times. Inflation has surged, reminiscent of economic turmoil seen during the 1970s, sparking voter questions about whether they are actually doing any ‘better’ now compared to four years ago.
Voters report being frustrated with high prices and economic instability, setting the stage for Trump's comeback message: “Are you really satisfied with where we are now?” This sentiment seems to resonate well among those who feel neglected, particularly Trump’s stronghold demographic of non-college-educated individuals and working-class voters who, feeling left behind, have found solidarity with Trump on issues like immigration and economic policy.
Another bullet point for Trump is his resilience under pressure. Despite legal troubles stemming from the January 6 insurrection, multiple indictments, and criticisms of past actions, Trump’s approval ratings with Republican voters have remained strong, above 40% this year. His supporters often frame these issues as politically motivated, stonewalling pushback and arming him with the narrative of victimization, which keeps his base aligned. Trump continues to lead discussions on immigration, particularly with voters who trust him more than Harris on these matters, indicating her campaign may need to counter with more compelling alternatives.
Turning to Harris, she has her own set of advantages. The most direct of which is simply not being Trump. While Trump continues to be polarizing, Harris can capitalize on sentiments surrounding stability—especially as many Americans express concerns over political discord. She has been vocal about framing Trump's return as dangerous for democracy, often referring to him as “fascist.” With polls showing fears for the future prevalent among voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, Harris is betting her calls for unity will take root.
Harris's campaign strategy revolves around painting her as the alternative to not just Trump but also to Biden. The Democratic Party's ability to rally around her fast became apparent when Biden announced his exit from the race, giving Harris the leeway to promote new ideas. Following this shift, she’s crafted messages focusing on key issues like women's rights—important with the fallout from the overturning of Roe v. Wade still fresh on the American mind. Mobilizing voters concerned about abortion rights could very well work to her advantage, especially with ballot initiatives heavily influencing turnout among specific demographics.
On the voting front, Harris's coalition appears to be more reliable. Her core support is coming from the college-educated voters, who are statistically more likely to follow through and vote. This could give her the edge needed, particularly since many young voters who align with Trump failed to cast their ballots during the last election.
Financial muscle also plays a colossal role as both candidates enter the final stretch. Harris has out-raised Trump, bringing more cash to spend on advertising than Trump has cumulatively since early 2023. This budgetary advantage translates to more visibility through campaign ads, especially pivotal during these closing days leading up to the election. Harris’s campaign has not only raised more funds but has spent recklessly on pivotal advertisements, particularly in swing states—setting up additional opportunities to convince fence-sitters.
Let's zoom out and take stock of the broader electoral map and how things stand heading to November 4. Based on the analysis of various state polling data, experts identified three primary paths Kamala Harris can take to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to ascend to the presidency.
First, Harris maintains bolstered lead across the Rust Belt, comprising states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—regions pivotal to any Democratic hopes of election triumph. Having made significant strides there previously, retaining those states could solidify her position as long as she combats any erosion of support among Black voters—crucial for her campaign, particularly with the Philadelphia vote.
Secondly, if Harris opts to echo Biden’s successful campaigning strategies from 2020—keeping the coalition she built intact—she may repeat the success he demonstrated across rustbelt territories. While her polling shares are still viable, even minor shifts could be devastating if Trump captures just enough swing voters to shift those pivotal states back to red.
Lastly, tackling the Sun Belt is Harris’s least likely, though not impossible, path to victory. With states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, her success hinges heavily on turning the demographic tides among Latino and Black voters. While she holds cordial leads, the concern remains she’ll need two unlikely polling phenomena to shift simultaneously—Trump being undercounted here and her being underestimated elsewhere. She needs hefty turnout here to offset losses elsewhere, but with Trump’s rhetoric appealing to many frustrated voters, it remains to be seen how likely those votes are to materialize.
Whichever way the wind blows, both candidates are approaching election day with energized bases and ambiguous outcomes hanging on the wire. With everything at stake, the final rallies may very well tilt the scales as Harris and Trump make their last pitches to secure their legacies.
Tomorrow’s results could reshape the political future of the country and redefine what’s possible for the candidates on either side. Only time will tell who will emerge from this election sketch, but until then, political analysts and voters alike are holding their breath, waiting to exhale as the clock ticks down to the moment of truth.
