In the fast-evolving Hanoi real estate market, secondary apartment prices are expected to continue their downward trend, according to recent analyses. Experts have noted that the average price of secondary apartments in the first quarter of 2025 reached approximately 60 million VND per square meter, with a significant number of projects reporting price reductions.
A survey conducted by Savills Vietnam highlighted that of over 400 apartment projects in Hanoi, 47% recorded a decrease in secondary selling prices compared to the previous quarter. This decline reflects a broader trend, with the average price in the secondary market showing a decrease of about 1% per quarter.
For instance, an apartment in Cau Giay district, which was initially listed at 83 million VND per square meter in early 2025, has now seen its price drop to 78 million VND per square meter, translating to a reduction of nearly 600 million VND in just over a month. Similarly, another apartment in Tay Mo ward has decreased from 4.3 billion VND to 4 billion VND.
Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of the Consulting and Research Department at Savills Hanoi, attributes this trend to changing profit expectations among investors. As primary prices remain high, buyers are increasingly turning to the secondary market for more reasonable pricing. "Many investors who have achieved their profit expectations in previous phases are adjusting their strategies, accepting narrower profit margins to increase liquidity and reallocating capital to other markets," she explained.
This shift is contributing to a wave of price adjustments in the secondary market, which is no longer limited to isolated incidents but is occurring on a broader scale, indicating a clear pressure to rebalance supply and demand.
Despite these reductions, the current price adjustments are not sufficient to stimulate significant transactions between buyers and sellers. Hang forecasts that secondary apartment prices will continue to decline, particularly as buyers now have more options and the market becomes increasingly flexible.
In contrast, the primary apartment market is experiencing notable price increases. According to Savills, the average primary apartment price in Hanoi has risen by 22% over the past year, with Dong Anh witnessing a staggering 42% increase and Tay Ho following closely with a 40% rise. Tay Ho currently leads in average primary prices at around 185 million VND per square meter.
The disparity between primary and secondary prices is significant, with primary apartments averaging around 79 million VND per square meter compared to the secondary market's average of 60 million VND per square meter—a difference of nearly 32%. This widening gap is particularly pronounced in the high-end segment, where Grade A projects show a price difference of up to 52% and Grade B projects exhibit a 21% difference.
Hang noted that the high primary prices are largely due to new supply being concentrated in large urban projects. In the first quarter of 2025, the new apartment supply in Hanoi reached 7,940 units, with primary supply totaling 11,168 units, down 33% from the previous quarter and 14% from the previous year. Although the number of units sold decreased by 41% compared to the previous quarter, it marked a 49% increase compared to last year, with Grade B accounting for 99% of the units sold.
Major projects such as Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, and Vinhomes Global Gate are responsible for 89% of the new supply and 90% of the total units sold. These projects, despite being located farther from the city center, are shaping primary prices at a high level due to their scale and amenities.
Looking ahead, Savills forecasts that primary prices are unlikely to decrease in the second quarter of 2025, as the new supply primarily consists of well-located, high-quality projects from reputable developers, with prices expected to hover around 100 million VND per square meter.
However, the market may see a shift later in 2025, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, when larger projects are completed and new developments in less prime areas are introduced. This could lead to a slight adjustment in primary prices to more reasonable levels.
As the market grapples with high prices that exceed the affordability of many potential buyers, particularly young families and middle-income individuals, there is hope that the reintroduction of Grade C apartments—products that have been largely absent in recent years—could help align the market more closely with actual demand.
Furthermore, the re-supply of apartments priced under 2 billion VND is anticipated to contribute to a more sustainable balance between supply and demand, potentially paving the way for a deeper adjustment cycle in the market as we move into 2026.
