Shifting global trade dynamics have significant ramifications for both energy and agriculture, particularly evident through Greece's energetic transformations and Thailand's export volatility.
Greece has undergone a substantial shift from being a net importer of electricity to achieving a small surplus by 2024. According to Nikos Tsafos, the Chief Energy Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, this transition reflects the country's comparative advantage in electricity production. Previously, Greece was importing about 18% of its electricity needs as of 2019, leading to heightened power prices and increased trade balance deficits.
Data reveals Greece’s electricity imports had peaked at 9.94 TWh during times of high demand, but with new policies and advancements, the nation reported its first foreign electricity surplus since 1990, even if marginal at only 307 GWh. This latest milestone came as Greece leaned more on gas power plants, whose output surged dramatically by 35.9% last year, lifting the overall electricity exports during high-demand months.
Significantly, gas plants have provided Greece with the necessary flexibility to meet demands when renewable energy sources were low, such as during lackluster summer and winter months. Tsafos highlighted the added value of baseload units, especially those capable of adjusting outputs as per the grid's requirements. This flexibility is increasingly pivotal as energy systems across Southeastern Europe adapt to changing consumption patterns.
On the other hand, Thai exporters are facing challenges as they risk incurring higher tariffs from the United States, which could put pressure on the already competitive export market. Burin Adulwattana from Kasikorn Research (K-Research) pointed out the potential effects on products like machinery, solar modules, and various electronics. The anticipated tariffs arise partly from Thailand's considerable trade surplus with the U.S., making the country, the 10th largest source of trade surplus, vulnerable to tariff increases.
This precarious balance could force Thailand to import more commodities from the U.S., including natural gas and grains, as part of efforts to mitigate its trade surplus. The move could significantly affect pricing and availability for local manufacturers who heavily depend on raw imports. Adulwattana noted, "Thai exporters risk higher U.S. tariffs...the impact would depend on the extent of the tariff increase…"
Meanwhile, Rio Negro, Argentina, this week began its pear and apple export season with indications of increased sales abroad. Facundo Fernández, Secretary for Fruit Growing, reported shipments of over 600,000 tons of fruits to Brazil, which are expected to distribute to various international markets, including Russia, the top buyer.
Fernández assured, "Exports have started normally...the frequency of shipments depends on the destination." He elaborated on the local challenges, such as high taxes and the competitive pricing from other producers, which remain constant barriers to maximizing exports. He said, "The problem...is not the volume of fruit...but the high taxes on a box."
Despite these concerns, the region maintains environmental advantages conducive to producing top-quality fruit. The desert climate of Rio Negro enables the growth of healthy, sweet pears and apples, contributing to their high desirability across markets.
Greece, Thailand, and Argentina currently find themselves at the crossroads of dynamic trade realities, where energy policies and agricultural production face various pressures from global trade perspectives. With nuanced approaches needed to navigate these shifting landscapes, the viability of sectors reliant on international trade may considerably depend on local policies and global market responses.